Why Mariners' Cal Raleigh is AL's 'LVP' and not Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Why Mariners' Cal Raleigh is AL's 'LVP' and not Vladimir Guerrero Jr. originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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The Seattle Mariners have had a rough 2026 season. After coming one win shy of the World Series a year ago, they've failed to make the postseason despite the AL West leader having a record under .500 with three games to go.

This Mariners season is one of the worst in recent years due to the expectations coming into the season. A lot of people are to blame, but one of the main reasons why things fell apart is thanks to Cal Raleigh.

Jayson Stark of The Athletic named Raleigh the American League's "LVP" or "Least Valuable Player." Instead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. earning this label for his poor 2026 season, Raleigh is the LVP of the season for a few key reasons.

Why Cal Raleigh earned LVP award over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

"The Mariners' catcher has gone from MVP runner-up, 60-homer machine and heartbeat of a team that was eight outs from the World Series to... eh, hoo boy," Stark writes. "The Big Dumper has been worth 1.1 WAR all season, according to Baseball Reference..."

Raleigh's drop-off this season isn't limited to just some struggles to accumulate bWAR. There is so much else that's gone wrong for the Mariners catcher.

"But would that alone have been enough to push Raleigh 'ahead' of Vladdy in this LVP derby? It would not," Stark writes. "To pull that off would have taken one of the steepest drop-offs, from one season to the next, in baseball history. Unfortunately for Raleigh, that's what he's enduring."

Raleigh has gone from 60 homers to 23 with three games to go. That's the biggest drop-off of all-time for a 60-homer hitter, according to Stark.

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Regarding his 1.1 bWAR, Stark shared, "And if you're wondering how many top-two MVP finishers have ever gone from at least 7.0 that year to under 2. 0the next, that would be none -- until now."

Raleigh's drop-off in homers and bWAR is something baseball has never seen before. But it's so much more than just those two poor statistics.

He posted a slash line of .247/.359/.589 last season. In 2026, his average dropped 68 points, his on-base percentage 63 points, and his slugging percentage an astounding 220 points with three games to go.

Those numbers will look different by the end of the season, but those are some truly terrible drop-offs, even if he were to get hot in these final three games of 2026.

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Going from a 169 OPS+ to a 92 OPS+, and a .948 OPS to a .663 OPS, is an all-time fall-off for any player in MLB history.

All of that is exceptionally terrible production, but considering Guerrero has just nine homers this season with a .695 OPS and a 92 OPS+, he's not the "LVP" this season due to the sheer drop-off from Raleigh in 2025 to 2026.

It's not just the drop-off for Raleigh that's playing a role here either. The Blue Jays had a rough 2026 season, but they at least played better than Seattle did this year.

Raleigh is the "LVP" of the American League in 2026 thanks to the record-breaking drop-off he's had from 2025 to 2026.

While he might not be the worst player in the AL, his production in 2026 is far below what was expected of him this season and is more than deserving of the "Least Valuable Player" label this year.

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