Struggling Cal football team looks to avoid a fifth loss in six games
· Yahoo Sports
Cal football (3-5, 2-3 ACC) might need to expand senior Derek Wilkins and the defensive line's practice of taking three deep breaths after every drive as the program searches for answers after falling to SMU 59-20 last week, their fourth loss in five games.
Visit freshyourfeel.org for more information.
"After every drive, our coach D2 (Darrion Daniels) comes, and we hit a reset," Wilkins explained after the Bears' Tuesday practice as the team prepares for NC State (3-4, 1-3) when asked what gives him confidence he and the team can turn around what's been a turbulent season of football in Berkeley.
"We could have went three-and-out, scored a touchdown on defense; they could have scored on us - we hit that same reset every time. Three deep breaths. We talk about what we need to talk about, and then you know we get going, get up, cheer the offense on. Defense, good drive, bad drive. We try to come together, talk about it, and level ourselves because success and failure, they can both be impostors. That's something that I've always been taught. And no matter whether you're playing amazing or you're playing bad - you've got to play level-headed. That's when you're putting your best product out there."
But while Wilkins and his teammates have the correct process in mind, Cal's best product has been few and far between in first-year head coach Tosh Lupoi's first season at the helm.
The Bears have been sloppy; their 85.3 penalty yards per game lead all 138 FBS teams in the country. The Bears have been disorganized; it took them weeks to settle on an offensive play caller and somehow found themselves with a quarterback competition after benching Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, before he got the starting job back a week later. Most importantly, the Bears have been losing.
With Cal needing to win three of its last four games to be bowl eligible, the Bears need to take Wilkins' words to heart if they hope to leave with some kind of marker for success this season. Lupoi understands the urgency of the predicament he and the program face, and the coach acknowledged that how Cal closes this year could affect future recruiting efforts.
"I think it could, certainly," Lupoi said. "Great players want to play and be a part of winning equations. Been super fortunate thus far with the players that we've recruited in this elite class, and a strong majority has been really strong with us. But certainly it can affect. … Great players want to go win, just like I do."
Hence the stakes of the Bears and Wolfpack's ACC bottom-feeder battle in Raleigh on Saturday. With Cal's future on the line in this final month of the season, a win against NC State feels as essential as oxygen for a program barely keeping its head above water.
The Wolfpack is being led by an interim head coach, former running backs coach Todd Goebbel, after it fired Dave Doeren after a loss to Stanford last weekend.
When Cal has the ball:It's stoppable force versus movable object between the Cal offense and the NC State defense, as neither unit has looked great this season. The Bears' offense ranks 131st in EPA per play (minus-0.23), and the NC State defense ranks 128th in opponent EPA per play (0.14), according to Game on Paper.
But often, when a bad offense plays a bad defense, the offense will find its groove. And as inconsistent as the Bears offense has been this season, it still has Sagapolutele, and it still has had flashes. Before SMU stampeded for 42 second-half points, Cal led the Mustangs 20-17, with Sagapolutele having completed 19 of 23 first-half attempts.
Staying aggressive will be the key to maintaining consistency, Sagapolutele said during his Tuesday media availability, emphasizing his own need to avoid taking unnecessary sacks.
"I think every week you're gonna have something to clean up, but definitely the second half, those crucial sacks that I took that kind of pushed us back a lot," Sagapolutele said. "It was not (an issue of) pushing the ball down the field, but just really knowing what my hot answer is. I think (I was) trying to make too (many) plays on my legs, and so just getting it out to my guys who are playmakers."
With the NC State defense second-to-last in EPA per pass (0.39), Sagapolutele has a great opportunity to refind his rhythm.
When NC State has the ball:The battle between these units will be a little more elite. NC State ranks 38th in EPA per pass (0.18), and the Cal defense is a respectable 58th in opposing EPA/pass (0.03), commanding electric playmakers like Kingston Lopa, Aiden Manutai and Isaiah Crosby, players who can create takeaways.
However, the Bears were done in by SMU both in the air and on the ground. Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns while former Cal running back Kendrick Raphael churned his way to 126 yards and three more TDs. Cal will have to come correct against NC State's CJ Bailey. The 6-foot-6 junior can beat the Bears both in the air and on the ground as the defense has struggled with containing dual-threat quarterbacks all season long.
The key battleground between these two units will be the late downs. NC State offense converts on 51.5% of their third- and fourth-down situations (tied for 21st). Meanwhile, the Bears defense ranks 115th in third/fourth down success rate, allowing teams to convert a first down 51% of the time. If Cal can't get the Wolfpack off the field, NC State might grind them into dust, just as SMU did.
Notable injuries:Cal has a hefty list of starters listed as questionable on the injury report, including WRs Ian Strong and Cooper Perry, RBs Ashten Emory and Adam Mohammed, ILB AJ Tuitele, and OLs Frederick Williams III, Tyson Ruffins and Jimothy Lewis Jr. Tight end Dorian Thomas has been downgraded to out.
NC State is also banged up. Starters OL Daniel Cruz, WR Jojo Trader, RB Duke Scott and S Tristan Teasdell are listed as out. The Wolfpack will also be without starters Spike Sowells, AJ Richardson, TE Vander Ploog and OL Yousef Mugharbil, who suffered season-ending injuries in the weeks prior.
Key stats to remember:Sagapolutele's aDOT (average depth of target) is 6.9 yards, which ranks 269th out of 282 quarterbacks, according to PFF.
A transfer from Ohio State, junior quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has stepped in this season for Louisville, throwing for 1,844 yards and 10 touchdowns and running for 251 yards and 10 touchdowns. (Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press)Stanford heads to Louisville
It's a battle of the Cardinal versus the Cardinals. Fresh off a thrilling 31-28 win over NC State to secure their first two-game win streak, Stanford (4-4, 2-3 ACC) heads to Louisville (4-3, 3-2) for the first time in history. With head coach Tavita Pritchard and his squad looking to carry their momentum of back-to-back 30-point performances, they face a strong Louisville team finding its groove after a slow start to the season.
"Really talented team," head coach Tavita Pritchard told reporters Tuesday as he previewed the Saturday matchup in Kentucky. "This is a complementary football team that knows their identity, that plays to their identity, that is coming off of two wins and now a bye. And we're playing them at their house. For all those reasons, we know this is an incredible challenge and opportunity for us to take another step in becoming the team that we want to become."
When Stanford has the ball:Running back Micah Ford and the Stanford ground attack will be the key to the Cardinal controlling the tempo of the game and keeping the Louisville offense off the field. Ford has accumulated 329 rushing yards and four touchdowns through Stanford's last two wins, churning his way to 150 yards on 22 carries in their win against NC State.
"We've had two weeks of more examples of clean runs," Pritchard said. "Guys going to the right guys, hats on hats, giving our backs some opportunities to find some seams in their. And credit our backs in those moments where there have been some seams, hitting them. And when they've been called on to make some guys miss, they've done that as well."
But Stanford's ground attack will face a big test against Louisville as their defense ranks 28th in opponent EPA per play (minus-0.11) and 42nd in opposing EPA per rush (minus-0.03).
When Louisville has the ball:The Stanford defense has faced plenty of talented offenses this season, and Louisville is no exception. The Cardinals from Kentucky rank 18th in the country in EPA/play (0.17) and 13th in yards per play (1.66), boasting a passing game and running game that rank in the top 25 in EPA.
"The offense is explosive," Pritchard said, breaking down what makes Louisville's offense such a challenge. "They put up points and they can attack you in a lot of different ways. The quarterback (Lincoln Kienholz) is mobile, he can beat you with his arm. The running back, both running backs and I'll start with (their) number one (Isaac Brown) is explosive. When he touches the ball, you have the corral him because if he finds a seam and hits it, he has home run ability. The backup (Keyjuan Brown), he's not a slouch. He is a high-level back kind of as a, quote-unquote, changeup option for them."
Stanford's defense has not held up well against even the slightest embers of offensive firepower, having surrendered 45 against Miami, 35 against Duke, 57 against Wake Forest and 58 against Notre Dame. They rank 130th in opponent EPA/play with little to write home about in terms of their ability to slow down Louisville. If Stanford is going to have a chance of pull off an upset on the road, they'll need their offense to keep pace with Kienholz and the twin-headed ground attack.
Notable injuries:Stanford WR Nico Brown is probable for Saturday, likely giving their offense another weapon. Key pieces WR Brandon Nicholson, ILB Matt Rose and OL Aidan Kilstrom remain out.
Louisville will be without WR Lawayne McCoy, one of Kienholz's top targets, potentially blunting their ability to push the ball down the field. Additionally, starting OL Anwar O'neal is doubtful.
Key stats to remember:The Louisville defense ranks just 112th in average third-down distance (6.51 yards) but a respectable 51st in third/fourth down success rate (41.5%). Stanford hasn't been great converting on late downs, but if they can stay ahead of the chains, the offense can keep Louisville's on the sidelines and lessen their number of possessions.
Luke Weaver is expected to start at quarterback when San Jose State hosts New Mexico on Saturday, according to ESPN insider Pete Thamel. (Kyusung Gong/Associated Press)SJSU hosts New Mexico
San Jose State (4-4, 2-2) welcomes New Mexico (6-1, 3-0) to the South Bay as the Spartans look to upset the Lobos' bid for the Mountain West's College Football Playoff spot. San Jose State has traded wins and losses back and forth for the majority of the season but hopes to avoid a second defeat in a row after a tepid 28-13 loss to Nevada last week.
When San Jose State has the ball:It's a bad time for San Jose State to be struggling offensively as the Spartans face a nasty New Mexico defense that has made life miserable for everyone they've played. The Lobos defense ranks 20th in opponent EPA per play (minus-0.15) and leads the country in takeaways with 15 interceptions and 8 fumble recoveries.
To make the outlook seem worse, the Spartans' quarterback situation has been a bit of a disaster as of late heading into Saturday. San Jose State used three quarterbacks against Nevada and none of them found a rhythm. Freshman Daniel Rolovich left early due to an undisclosed injury, being replaced by freshman Robert McDaniel before senior Luke Weaver took over in the fourth quarter.
ESPN insider Pete Thamel reported that Weaver will get the start against New Mexico. Weaver will have to protect the ball from the Lobos' ball-hawks and overcome one of the best pass defenses in the country, ranking third in opposing EPA per pass (minus-0.24).
When New Mexico has the ball: The Lobos boast one of the better ground attacks in the country, ranking 34th in EPA per rush (0.11) and averaging 210.6 rushing yards a game. But if San Jose State is able to plug New Mexico's runners, namely tailback Scottre Humphrey, and force quarterback Toa Fa'avae to push the ball down the field, the defense may be able to keep the Lobos in check.
Fa'avae has struggled to produce, with only 790 passing yards, five TDs and four interceptions as New Mexico ranks just 98th in EPA per pass (minus-0.01). San Jose State's defense hasn't been nearly as elite as that of the Lobos, but if they turn New Mexico into a one-dimensional passing attack, they can take advantage of the fact that they rank last in the country in average third-down distance (8.41).
Notable injuries:Spartans starters WR Cooper Hoch and OL Tyler Chen are listed as questionable. Lobos starters DE Darren Agu and Tavian Combs are also questionable.
Key stats to remember:The Lobos defense ranks first in early down EPA (minus-0.22), first in average third-down distance (8.73), and ninth in 3rd/4th down success rate (34.4%) while the Spartans offense ranks 102nd (minus-0.01), 98th (7.40), and 106th (38.9%) in those respective categories.
Kenzo Fukuda is a freelance journalist born and raised in San Francisco. He has covered the Giants, Warriors and Valkyries since 2025, and he previously covered Cal football and women's basketball from 2022-24. You can follow him on X at @kenzofuku
Subscribe
There’s more to San Francisco with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25¢.This article originally published at Struggling Cal football team looks to avoid a fifth loss in six games.