Grading the Orioles Starting Rotation from 2026

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Oct 7, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish (39) looks on during the third inning against the Texas Rangers in game one of the ALDS for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: T… | Source: Lastwordonsports.com - Chris Drosehn

When the season got underway in March, it was the Baltimore Orioles’ starting rotation that was supposed to be the main reason for a possible underachievement. The bats were young and up-and-coming, and new hitters had been added to the fold, which certainly was a main focus in the offseason, while the bullpen looked good enough to carry its weight.

The Orioles largely left the starting rotation alone, except for a 1-year, $18.5 million deal handed out to veteran Chris Bassitt. Trevor Rogers looked like a Cy Young candidate in the second half of 2025, but uncertainty was in the air for Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish, both of whom the O’s ended up extending. That left mid-four ERA king Dean Kremer (who was eventually traded at the deadline) and a young and unproven Brandon Young to bring up the back half of the rotation.

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However, the O’s finished in the top half of the league with a 4.08 starter ERA, with Young leading the rotation at a 3.56 clip, while the others followed in the low and mid fours. After grading every Orioles hitter last week, let’s take a look at every Oriole to start at least 10 games, attaching a letter grade to their performance.

Grading the Orioles Starting Rotation from 2026

Brandon Young

Grade: A

If you just took a look at his ERA, this could feel a little high, but for what he gave the Orioles when they desperately needed him most to fill in somewhere, Young could project as their second or third-best starter going into next season.  After starting just 12 contests a season ago and bouncing up and down between Norfolk and the big league club, Young gave the O’s 28 starts in 2026, pitching 156 2/3 innings. 

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Brandon Young (63) throws a pitch in the first inning of a MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles, Saturday, July 4, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati. © Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One of two starters to finish with a winning record, Young accumulated 2.3 WAR, the best on the staff, including a stretch of 57 2/3 innings in May and June where Young’s ERA sat at 2.81. He struggled a little toward the end of the year, but was no doubt the Orioles’ most impressive starter. His 87th percentile in chase percentage signals this success could continue, but even a little regression to the mean should keep Young’s spot safe in this rotation. 

Trevor Rogers

Grade: B-

In what may have been his final season in an Orioles uniform, Rogers got his money’s worth, making 30 starts and giving the O’s just under 170 innings pitched at a 4.03 ERA. He was also the only Oriole to reach double-digit wins this season.

It was a very streaky season for the former Miami Marlins starter, who came over in the Kyle Stowers trade a couple of seasons ago. The lefty posted a 1-6 record and an ERA over eight in a little more than 40 innings pitched through April and May.

But the soon-to-be free agent stacked June and July as probably his best two months of the season, going 4-1, with a sub-2.40 ERA in each. He threw more than 60 innings during this stretch, doing so in just 10 starts. He peaked in a five-game stretch from June 20 to July 18, giving up just three total runs over 30 2/3 innings and striking out 33 batters.

Because of the flashes he has shown Birdland, a B- feels right for an overall solid season, and Baltimore would love to have him back in the rotation a year from now if the sides can agree on a deal.

Kyle Bradish

Grade: C

Just seeing Bradish back out there and pitching at Camden Yards is a special sight, and extending the right-hander feels like the right move looking to lock down future arms.

Bradish’s home and road splits were pretty noticeable, which further backs the extension, as the 2018 draft pick threw to a 3.26 ERA in 13 starts, with a .199 OBA at Oriole Park. However, on the road, his ERA crept up near five, while his OBA sat at .312 and he gave up more than double the hits in just three more starts.

Bradish’s metrics are rather average across the board, but a ground ball rate in the 71st percentile is encouraging, and a tick up in velocity was noticeable toward the end of the year. Bradish back on the mound should make every O’s fan happy, and expect his stats to only move closer to that 2023 version that made us all fall in love with him.

Shane Baz

Grade: C

For a guy with a 4.11 ERA, a 6-15 record certainty doesn’t do him justice, and if it were up to Baz, he would surely like to make the lineup card every day he is throwing. After trading for Baz in December, Baltimore extended him another five years before he even made a regular season start, betting on the version they saw in Tampa Bay.

The Texas native paced the O’s in starts with 31, staying healthy the full season and only missing one start, which would have been Game 162, however canceled due to rain. 

Shane Baz delivers a pitch for the Orioles against the Pirates at PNC Park. Baz has been one member of the Orioles pitching staff who’s struggled early this season. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Baz was rather consistent throughout the whole season. His best stretch came toward the end of June into July, where he gave up just seven runs across five starts, pitching 29 1/3 innings, including multiple nine-strikeout games.  The pitch that delivered for Baz all season was the fastball, averaging 95.7 MPH. The heater graded out in the 90th percentile in terms of run value, throwing it just about 35% of the time.

He would certainly like a better record in year two of his five-year deal, and the way he was pitching toward the end of the season suggests a sub-four ERA is very possible for the 2027 campaign.

Chris Bassitt

Grade: D

For a one-year $18.5 million deal, the O’s were expecting a guy that could give them 25 or 30 starts at an ERA hovering around four, and be a veteran presence for a staff that leans younger. After an up-and-down start, Bassitt was sidelined due to a back injury for almost all of June and July before returning in mid-August. He struggled initially in his return, but found some sort of a groove in September, but it unfortunately came after the O’s needed him most. 

After accumulating greater than 2.0 WAR in six of his last seven seasons, a 0.6 performance in 18 starts is not quite what Baltimore was hoping for. With an expected ERA of 4.92 and expected batting average of .279, you can’t really argue that Bassitt got unlucky.

Overall, the Orioles were looking for Bassitt to have one more good season in him and be a central piece in helping them get back to the postseason, but neither of those things happened, making it unlikely that he is back in Baltimore.

The Last Word

The lead-up to this season carried premature false hope for a rotation that admittedly probably wasn’t one of the better ones in the league. However, it was a pleasant surprise how these five did their best to keep Baltimore in the playoff race as long as they did, and their grades are reflective of that. 

When ranking hitters, it’s hard to be as kind to a lineup that largely underachieved, but if you were told before the season that this team would finish in the top 15 in terms of starter ERA, you likely would’ve pegged them for the postseason.

In terms of the future of these five, fans should be pretty excited for Opening Day in 2027, especially if the organization can find a way to keep Rogers in orange. Bradish and Baz are both locked up for the future, while Young has a very friendly contract for Baltimore, which should allow them to be aggressive in free agency. So no, this wasn’t a staff featuring Cy Young contenders, but it was one good enough to help assist a team in getting back to the postseason.

 

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Main Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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