Party Like It’s 2016?
· Yahoo Sports
College football, in its purest form, is a remarkable game full of tradition, pageantry and so much fun. At the apex of that purity sits rivalry games. Texas-Oklahoma. Ohio State-Michigan. Iowa-Iowa State. There are generations of tradition and hatred built up among the fanbases and the games just bring more juice.
Tonight marks the 73rd meeting of the Cy-Hawk series, which dates back to 1894. The Hawkeyes lead the all-time series 46-25, officially.
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But things have been tight recently. Iowa hasn’t officially won this game since 2021 (the 2023 win was vacated) and they haven’t won it at home since 2018.
Dating back to 2017, every game in this series has been decided by 10 or fewer points. The Cyclones haven’t won this matchup by more than 3 since 2005. The last time either team won by more than 10 in this series was in 2016, when the Hawkeyes emerged victorious 42-3.
This week, we’ve been exploring the parallels to that 2016 season for this series and there certainly are a few. For starters, that 2016 season marked year one of the Matt Campbell era. Now, 2026 marks year one of the Jimmy Rogers era after Campbell departed for Penn State.
That 2016 season was also the last time either team was favored by more than two touchdowns with Iowa favored by 15.5 in that one.
Perhaps it’s that 2016 experience which has made Iowa fans so confident in this matchup. Our community was asked if the Hawkeyes would cover the then-14.5 points today and a whopping 81% said yes.
With the line down to 13.5 today, with an over/under at 40.5 total points, the fanbase should be jumping over to FanDuel Sportsbook to make some easy money.*
Our staff is feeling pretty optimistic as well. In our weekly projections, the staff is calling for an average final score of 30-13. That’s not quite 42-3, but it’s an old-fashioned butt whipping and pretty firmly taking the points.
Being favored so heavily is a relative rarity for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has been favored by more than two touchdowns just a dozen times in the long history of the series (although gambling data only reliably goes back to 1978). While the Hawks have been an impressive 10-2 overall in those matchups, they’re just 7-5 against the spread. It’s almost like those shiny buildings in the desert were built with someone else’s money.
Still, that is seven wins by two plus TDs. And that’s just in the games where they were already favored by that much. There was a stretch in the ‘80s-’90s where Iowa won 11 of 14 games by at least two TDs. All told, Iowa has won by at least that much 16 times dating back to 1983 (vs just two for the Cyclones). They’ve done it five times under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
All that to say, Iowa isn’t often favored by such a wide margin in this matchup, but they are this year, they were in 2016 and they don’t often win by all that much, but they did in 2016.
So can they recreate that mojo tonight?
Again, the parallels here seem to say yes.
Like 2016, this 2026 group seems to have a stellar defense after a dominant showing in week one where they gave up just 120 yards of total offense and no points. They’re prepared to come into a game against an Iowa State team that is still trying to find itself in year one under a new head coach.
While the Cyclones put up 38 points a week ago against Southeast Missouri State, they did so while only putting up 303 yards of total offense. They had only one more first down than the Redhawks and lost the time of possession battle by nearly 14 minutes. They ran the ball for a very mid 3.5 yards per carry and QB Jaylen Raynor completed just 50% of his passes against a very subpar opponent.
What made the difference? Turnovers.
The Cyclones created three while Raynor avoided throwing any interceptions despite throwing five passes for 20+ yards.
If we go back to that 2016 matchup, which was the last time this game was played under the Kinnick lights, we find those tables turned. The Cyclones had the only turnover of the game – an interception by Ben Niemann of QB Joel Lanning.
The Cyclones had a stud WR in Allen Lazard who caught 7 passes for 111 yards, including a long of 36 yards. Trever Ryen also picked up 19 on a long pass from Lanning. But the offense was overall held in check and the turnover was costly.
That’s very clearly the key to tonight’s matchup. If Iowa can turn over Raynor while keeping those chunk plays limited, this could be very similar to 2016.
On the other side of the ball, that 2016 Iowa team was able to keep the Cyclones guessing thanks to their balance.
The Hawkeyes ran the ball 36 times for 198 yards in that matchup, including 15 carries for 112 yards and a TD from lead rusher LeShun Daniels Jr. They got production out of their future NFL tight end George Kittle, who had three grabs, including a TD. And they had a talented receiving threat who could stretch the defense vertically and horizontally while winning 1-on-1 battles in Matt VandeBerg, who tallied 129 yards and a TD on seven catches.
Fast forward to 2026 and Iowa boasts a talented running back in Kamari Moulton, who just amassed 183 yards and two TDs on 11 carries in week one. They have a future NFL tight end in DJ Vonnahme, who tallied four grabs for 42 yards in week one. And perhaps most notably, Iowa has a dynamic receiver who offensive coordinator Tim Lester used both vertically and horizontally in week one en route to 84 yards and a TD on seven catches.
Tonight, we expect the Cyclones to play primarily man defense on the outside while focusing on stopping the run. To channel their inner 2016, the Hawkeyes will need to take advantage of those matchups to get Tony Diaz going early, find DJ Vonnahme when the Cyclones try to cover him with a linebacker and force the defense to soften up to open things for Kamari Moulton and the running game.
The parallels are there and if the Hawkeyes can find them, the results should be on par with 2016 as well.
If not, we could be in for a ninth straight Cy-Hawk decided by ten or fewer points. As we’ve seen, in a rivalry game, those close ones can result in chaos.
*This is not financial advice. Please gamble responsibly.