Pirates Series Takeaways: Season Slipping Away, More Skenes Struggles

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And just like that, the Pirates are in last place in the National League Central.

After dropping three out of four against the first-place Brewers in Milwaukee, the Pirates are in the all-too-familiar cellar of the division 117 games into the season.

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Things started off well at American Family Field, a notorious house of horrors for Pittsburgh since it was more-appropriately named Miller Park.

The Pirates made several additions at the trade deadline, and it looked like the team came out with some extra juice for a win on Monday night. But the Brewers showed why they are the best team in baseball by winning the final three games.

For the first time all season, the Pirates are three games under .500. Losing five straight series will do that. They continue to slip back even further in the wild card race, now ahead of only four teams and trailing seven. The Pirates were in possession of one of the wild card spots a little over a week ago. Now, teams that sold at the deadline have passed them in the race.

The bats have got stagnant. The offense has yet to score more than four runs in a game this month. The starting rotation has regressed dramatically from last season and is fading down the stretch. The bullpen finally got some help, but what’s it really matter if the only time the relievers are being used is when the team is already trailing?

The season is slipping away, and the Pirates are running out of time to correct course. Things need to change quickly. Period. Full stop.

Paul Skenes Problem

Never in a million years would I have guessed one of the biggest reasons the Pirates are getting held back in the wild card hunt is Paul Skenes. But here we are.

The reigning National League Cy Young winner still doesn’t seem very concerned. In all honesty, the underlying metrics are still in a good spot. But how much does that really matter when your season ERA is dangerously close to starting with a four?

This isn’t even fully a fastball velocity thing. Despite the tick down on the radar gun, the pitch has still been effective. But one theory is that the dip in velocity has resulted in less-effective offspeed pitches. That’s led to extended at-bats and hitters being able to get more barrels on balls.

Overall, Skenes hasn’t pitched terribly this season. His strikeouts are up from last year. His FIP is a very respectable 2.92, indicating his defense behind him as let him down. Or that he’s had some bad luck. Or both.

Put the numbers aside for a second and just trust your eyes. It’s clear he hasn’t been as dominant as he was for the first two seasons of his career. Not as sharp, some command issues, long innings and at-bats, etc.

What’s funny is that prior to his now three-month long rough patch, he had been pitching as well as ever before. After his debacle on Opening Day in New York, Skenes had a 1.09 ERA over his next eight starts. He was untouchable. But maybe that first start of the year was an indication of what was to come.

In his last 15 outings, he has a 5.20 ERA. Yes, you read that number right. He’s allowed at least four runs in six of those starts after having only done that five times in the first 55 starts of his career.

The Pirates’ record in those 15 starts? 3-12. Imagine if that was flipped, where they would be in the standings. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh has needed its ace to step up numerous times this season. And he hasn’t.

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