Record breaking El Nino may send winter on an extended holiday
· Toronto Sun
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The El Niño this year has been deemed by weather experts worldwide as a record-breaker.
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“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began,” World Meteorological Organization secretary-general Celeste Saulo told reporters at a press conference in Geneva back in September. “So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, during normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, pushing warm water from South America towards Asia.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern that breaks normal conditions.
During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed toward the west coast of North America.
Trade winds are winds that blow east to west just north and south of the equator.
The warmer water causes the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are typically drier and warmer than normal.
Many Canadians will be familiar with the phenomenon, which can be associated with milder-than-usual winters.
Difficult to predict
So, what does that mean for the upcoming months for residents in southern Ontario?
Environment Canada’s current seasonal forecast is calling for above-normal temperatures across southern Ontario through the end of December, with precipitation expected to be in the normal range.
And if the strength of the current El Niño continues to hold sway, as it is predicted to do, Toronto could also see more precipitation falling as rain through the end of the year.
However, Environment Canada says it is still way too early to know for sure how the winter weather will play out through January to March.
However, the main expectation is a potentially warmer and drier winter and spring, with the possibility of less snow and a shorter snow season if the forecast develops as expected.
Even the Farmers Almanac seems to agree with a portion of the science.
“Canada is simply too vast for a one-size-fits-all winter forecast,” The Old Farmer’s Almanac editor-in-chief Carol Connare said. “ This season, much of the south and far north are likely to enjoy milder-than-average conditions, while colder weather settles across parts of the middle of the country. Snow lovers may find plenty to celebrate in portions of both the east and west.”