How injuries will impact the Texas pass rush vs. Ole Miss and beyond
· Yahoo Sports
Two games into an eight-week stretch without a bye week to finish the regular season, the No. 17 Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the impact of injuries with senior running back Hollywood Smothers listed as questions for Saturday’s game against the No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels and two pass rushers less likely to play — star junior edge Colin Simmons is questionable with a high ankle sprain and freshman edge Richard Wesley is out with a high ankle sprain sustained in practice.
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The unexpected inclusion of Wesley on Wednesday’s initial player availability report is a significant development for the Longhorns — the former consensus five-star prospect was expected to play an expanded role as Simmons recovers from the high ankle sprain he sustained in the fourth quarter of last Saturday’s loss to the Gators.
Earlier this week, reports differed about how long Simmons might be out. Orangebloods reported three or four games while ESPN classified Simmons as week to week after the Ole Miss game.
Because Orangebloods is reporting that Wesley’s ankle injury is serious enough it could cause him to miss the final six games of the regular season, Texas projects as short handed in the pass rush against a top-10 opponent this weekend.
The high odds of playing without Simmons is the headline — the Duncanville product leads the nation with 10.5 sacks and has 26 total pressures, so he doesn’t just change games by getting quarterbacks to the ground, he’s also improved significantly as a run defender with 16 tackles for loss.
But it’s the pass-rushing ability of Simmons that Texas can’t easily replace, whether it’s coming off the edge or serving as a spy in the third-down package that lines him up at middle linebacker. Playing that role, Simmons can negate scrambling threats. Rushing off the edge, Simmons changes how opponents call their passing game — long-developing plays down the field run the risk of resulting in a drive-changing sack or worse with Simmons forcing two fumbles this season.
Without Simmons and Wesley, who has flashed with six pressures in limited opportunities, the Horns won’t have the same ability to impact star Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a dangerous proposition given the field-stretching speed of wide receiver Deuce Alexander. Chambliss doesn’t scramble particularly often with 11 for 75 yards this season, according to Pro Football Focus, but he does do an excellent job of keeping his eyes down field under pressure.
Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp may need to resist the temptation to blitz more often to put Chambliss under duress because he completes 62.7 percent of his passes when blitzed, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and throwing six touchdown passes.
Muschamp does still have his top two defensive ends available — sophomore Lance Jackson and junior Zina Umeozulu. The two players have only combined for three sacks this season, but have been effective at generating pressures with 29 total. Where the Longhorns need improvement from Jackson is in finishing plays better with six missed tackles this season at a rate of 27.3 percent. In contrast, Umeozulu doesn’t have any missed tackles this season. And while that’s a positive, 11 of his 12 pressures are quarterback hurries rather than sacks or hits, so Texas needs him to be more impactful.
Since Jackson is 274 pounds and Umeozulu is 272 pounds, neither player is a speed threat off the edges, so Muschamp isn’t likely to use either as stand-up rushers.
The other two top options are seniors Colton Vasek and Brad Spence, who only have three combined pressures. An edge player in high school, Spence was recruited as an inside linebacker because he lacks size and length for the position, while Vasek’s career has been derailed by persistent shoulder problems. The Austin Westlake product has only played seven snaps in SEC play.
There is another player who can impact the quarterback as a blitzer — senior linebacker Rasheem Biles, who arrived at Texas with six sacks in each of his previous two seasons at Pittsburgh. Biles only has one sack in 26 pass-rush snaps this season, but he does have seven pressures, including five in the UTSA and Tennessee games.
Given his track record, Biles is a guy who can make plays, so if Muschamp puts him in positions to succeed, history indicates that he will.