Red River Rivalry Predictions: 5 Projections for Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns
· Yahoo Sports
Anything can happen in college football rivalry games, which is why Saturday’s clash between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns offers so much intrigue. The top-ranked Longhorns are riding high right now with Arch Manning and company, but unranked Oklahoma has an upset on its mind with an opportunity to humble its rival.
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Let’s dive into our Red River Rivalry predictions for Saturday’s must-see clash of Oklahoma vs Texas.
John Mateer Turns it Over 2+ Times
Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) tries to get by Texas Longhorns linebacker Ty’Anthony Smith (26) in the first half of the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorn at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025.Sooners quarterback John Mateer has been abysmal this season. So much so that, even without a viable option behind him, Brent Venables at least had to consider making a change entering the bye. Oklahoma is sticking by its starting quarterback, who has as many sacks taken (eight) as passing touchdowns and has thrown an interception in three consecutive games. Most concerning for Oklahoma, Mateer has the third-highest Turnover-Worthy Play rate (10%) in the nation when pressured. This Longhorns defense will get after Mateer and force multiple interceptions, potentially even an interception with two strip-sack fumbles.
Oklahoma Sooners Defense Sacks Arch Manning 4 Times
Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Riley Pettijohn (5) sacks Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) during the NCAA football game at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas on Sept. 12, 2026.The Longhorns offensive line has not been quite as strong as hoped coming into the season. That was pretty apparent just two weeks ago against Tennessee (6 sacks allowed). On Saturday, Texas faces a Sooners defense that boasts the second-highest sack rate (13.83%) among Power 4 teams. Given Arch Manning’s propensity to hold onto the football too long and sometimes miss incoming defenders, we do believe Oklahoma sacks him four-plus times on Saturday.
Cam Coleman Finds the End Zone
Sep 19, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Cam Coleman (8) celebrates with wide receiver Ryan Wingo (1) and teammates after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the UTSA Roadrunners at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn ImagesOklahoma’s secondary will have some problems with Cam Coleman. Last season with Auburn, even with Jackson Arnold as his quarterback, he torched opponents for a 46-yard reception and also pulled in a 2-yard touchdown. Simply put, the Sooners do not have the length at cornerback to match up well with the 6-foot-3 wideout. We have not seen enough from him this season to suggest a big yardage game is coming, but we are pretty confident Coleman will pull down another red-zone touchdown this weekend.
Hollywood Smothers Rips Off a Run of 30+ Yards
Sep 12, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns running back Hollywood Smothers (2) runs against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn ImagesLonghorns running back Hollywood Smothers, who missed the Tennessee game, returns for the Red River Rivalry. It is a big boost for a Texas rushing attack that needs it. We do not expect the Longhorns ground game to be efficient on Saturday; Oklahoma has been very good this season on a down-to-down basis with limiting a lower yards-per-carry average. However, they have been prone to giving up one big play per game. We think Smothers delivers it in the second half, ripping off a run of 30-plus yards that gets Texas into the red zone and sets up a touchdown a few plays later.
Texas Longhorns 24, Oklahoma Sooners 10
Texas Longhorns defensive end Colin Simmons (1) celebrates with the golden hat following the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorn at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025.As unpredictable as rivalry games can be, we just do not see a path to Oklahoma winning the Red River Rivalry this weekend. Mateer’s penchant for turnovers already puts them at a significant disadvantage, and it is undeniable that the Longhorns roster is better, especially when you factor in health. The Longhorns defense will be the dominant force in this one, holding Oklahoma to 10 points all the while generating takeaways that lead to 13-plus points for Texas.