Fantasy Football: Key matchups to exploit in Week 5

· Yahoo Sports

I’m betting on Detroit’s passing game this week, and I want a piece of Arizona’s response, too. We’ve also got a receiving back who doesn’t need carries to help us and a couple of pass catchers whose roles fit what the defense gives up.

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Let’s get into it.

Say what you want about Detroit’s defense. We’ll get to that when we talk about Michael Wilson. But this Lions offense gets an Arizona defense that has been terrible against the pass, and I like this spot a lot.

Goff enters this game with 1,214 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Arizona has already allowed 11 passing touchdowns and a 114.9 opponent passer rating through four games. There is opportunity here for this entire passing attack.

The Cardinals’ 66.4% two-high rate gives Detroit a reason to work underneath, but that doesn’t mean Goff won’t have his shots. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta can keep the chains moving. Jameson Williams gives them the chance to turn one completion into a big play. This could be a good spot for him to get going, too.

And Jahmyr Gibbs is going to be involved on the ground and through the air. His presence doesn’t take me off Goff. It gives this offense another way to keep Arizona stressed.

I don’t need another 50-attempt game. Goff can be efficient, create explosive plays and still have a monster fantasy day without throwing on every possession.

I have him at QB2 this week, with more than 300 projected passing yards and two passing touchdowns. That tells you where I stand. I’m not treating Goff as a streaming option here. I’m starting him with confidence.

We know Harvey isn’t going to carry the ball a ton. He has run it 12 times this season. If you’re waiting for him to suddenly become a 20-carry back, you’re looking for the wrong thing.

His involvement in the receiving game is why I want to talk about him.

Harvey has caught 20 passes for 132 yards across three appearances, including 10 catches last week. Denver is finding ways to get him the football, and those receptions count just the same whether they come on a designed screen or a quick outlet from Bo Nix.

The Chargers have allowed running backs to account for 21.6% of the targets against them, the eighth-highest share through four weeks. That fits what Harvey is already doing. Swings, quick outs and screens have been part of his receiving work, giving Nix options without needing to push the ball downfield.

Now, the 10-catch game isn’t the baseline. Harvey’s route participation is only 33.8%, and J.K. Dobbins still has a role near the goal line. We can like the receiving involvement without pretending Harvey has taken over this backfield.

But if I’m choosing between Harvey and a back who needs a touchdown to save his afternoon, I’m interested in the guy catching passes.

He’s a stronger play in full PPR, but I’m considering him at flex in half-PPR, too. The carries aren’t the selling point — the receiving work is.

Chicago is a bit of a rolling crapshoot right now.

What are we getting from Tyson Bagent? How productive will the rushing attack be? Which pass catcher gets the opportunities? I’m not going to act like we have clean answers to all of that.

What I do like is what Burden has earned.

Through four weeks, he has a 22% target share and a 28.2% first-read share. This hasn’t been the massive, explosive breakout people were waiting for, but Chicago is making him a meaningful part of the offense. That matters more to me than whether he has delivered the highlight-reel performance yet.

More than half of his alignment has come from the slot, and Green Bay has played zone at a 73.6% rate. Burden’s work on digs, quick outs and shallow crosses gives Ben Johnson ways to get him involved without asking Bagent to repeatedly make difficult throws downfield.

Wide receivers have also accounted for two-thirds of the targets against the Packers. There should be opportunities for Chicago’s receivers, even if we can’t guarantee how they get distributed.

Could this turn into a Kalif Raymond game? Sure. That’s part of the frustration with trying to pin down this offense.

Still, Burden’s target involvement gives me something tangible to trust. I like him as a flex against Green Bay, especially over a receiver whose entire case depends on connecting on one deep ball.

Michael Wilson is the real deal. This Lions pass defense has not been.

That’s where I’m starting.

You don’t earn 17 targets by accident. And Wilson’s broader usage tells us this isn’t just about chasing one busy afternoon. He has a 94.4% route participation rate, a 28.9% target share and a 36.8% first-read share through four weeks.

Arizona is putting him on the field and looking for him. He has become a difference-maker for this offense, and I don’t expect the Cardinals to move away from that against Detroit.

The Lions have allowed 11 passing touchdowns and a 110.4 opponent passer rating. If Goff and the Detroit offense have the day I’m projecting, Arizona will need answers. I expect Wilson and Trey McBride to be central to that response.

McBride’s matchup is excellent, too. Tight ends have accounted for 32.3% of the targets against Detroit. But there is room for both players to produce. We don’t have to manufacture a Marvin Harrison Jr. breakout to find someone who can take advantage of this defense.

Losing Paris Johnson Jr. on the offensive line is a concern. I’m not dismissing what that means for protection. But Wilson can work at different depths, and his hitches, curls and intermediate routes give Arizona ways to involve him without waiting on a deep shot.

I’m playing Wilson with full confidence. The matchup helps, but the role is what makes this a strong recommendation.

Hockenson has felt off the fantasy radar for a while. Then you watch Minnesota make him a priority, and suddenly, you remember how useful this guy can be.

The connection with Kyler Murray last week caught my attention. Even if Justin Jefferson returns, I don’t think that means Hockenson’s involvement just disappears.

There will be more target competition, that’s fair. But Hockenson has a 23.6% target share and a 28.1% first-read share through four weeks. Minnesota has been looking for him, and this opponent gives the Vikings reasons to keep doing it.

Tight ends have received 32.2% of the targets against New Orleans, the third-highest share in the league. The Saints have also used Cover 3 on 43.6% of their charted passing plays. Hockenson’s short and intermediate work gives him opportunities to find space underneath that coverage.

I expect Brian Flores’ defense to make life difficult for New Orleans. But that doesn’t mean we need Minnesota to throw all afternoon for Hockenson to contribute. A handful of catches can matter at a position where we’re often hoping our starter gets involved at all.

I like Hockenson as a starting option here. Check the injury news, but don’t assume Jefferson returning erases the connection we just saw.

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