Fantasy Football: Revisiting preseason expectations after one month of the 2026 season

· Yahoo Sports

Doing projects with my wife is an experience. We’ve been married for almost 20 years, and for about 19 of them, I could’ve sworn we thought the same way. There were signs, though. 

We redid our guest bathroom in 2018 and spent two hours looking at shades of paint. Don’t get me wrong. That had to happen. But debating “Aqua Fiesta” versus “Tropical Sea” as I’m replumbing the shower caught me off guard. But to be fair, her ability to hop into the weeds while keeping a full view of the forest is why we work well together. 

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It’d make her a good fantasy football manager, too. We watch games, go to the film or our stat providers and project ahead. But keeping sight of the big picture is key. Four weeks in, it's easy to get lost in the weeds. So, let's step back, revisit a few preseason narratives and see what the forest looks like now.

Over the spring and summer, I take a high-level view of ADP data by checking which teams the market wants us to buy. My focus is specifically on the early rounds.

(Chart by Chris Allen/Yahoo Sports)

Think about it this way. I went back over the last five years to calculate top-12 hit rates for players by their ADP. You’d assume a more expensive player would net us higher output. And typically you’d be right! Even if we’re dealing with smaller samples at QB and TE, the draft community has a good idea of how to value players. But more broadly, it gives us an idea of what we think about each offense. I’ll use this year’s board as an example.

  • Bears: 5 (players drafted inside the top 72)

  • Bengals: 4

  • Lions: 4

  • Cowboys: 4

On draft day, all we see is names. The adage is “get your guy,” not “get your team.” Sure, we give consideration to their environment. But that’s already part of the cost. And once again, we were kind of cooking when setting prices.

  • Yards per Game: 1st (CHI rank), 11th (CIN rank), 6th (DET rank), 12th (DAL rank)

  • EPA per Drive: 8th, 12th, 4th, 2nd 

  • Team PPR PPG: 8th, 7th, 1st, 4th 

With top-12 marks overall, the production pie for each team has been large enough for everyone to eat. But a few have been left out. Luckily, Colston Loveland is showing signs of life. The same might be the case for a couple of others from this group of teams. 

Credit to the Jaguars’ run defense. They forced Cincinnati into a pass-only script by bottling up the run game. Chase Brown averaged 0.56 adjusted yards before contact per attempt and an 11.1% rushing success rate. And it felt like that all game. But it didn’t stop Brown from staying involved in the offense.

  • Route Rate: 64% (Week 4), 52% (Weeks 1-3)

  • Targets per Route Run: 30%, 19%

  • Target Share: 21%, 11%

Samaje Perine didn’t take over. Instead, we got more of Brown as a receiver, setting a new career-high with 11 receptions. OC Dan Pitcher called their run-game strategy “unsustainable” after just 23 yards on the ground. And as they turn it around, Brown’s totes should turn into touchdowns.

I could make the same case for a receiver in a similar situation.

The offseason thought of Detroit’s defense turning the Lions into the 2025 Bengals has worked for everyone except Jameson Williams. It took him until Sunday night to crack the top 24. But a quick look under the hood highlights the root cause.

  • Target Rate on In-breaking Routes: 47.1% (2025), 16.0% (2026)

  • Target Rate on Out-breaking Routes: 12.7%, 44.0%

On top of the drops, Williams YAC per reception is down from last season. But when most of his routes are now going to the boundary, even without a significant change in depth, the chance for explosives diminishes. Plus, the time to adjust to a role change increases.

In both cases, our priors about the environment were correct. However, the results don’t add up. Accordingly, isolating the usage metrics that matter, like a 51% air yard share for George Pickens in Week 4, should be our approach before deciding a player isn’t living up to preseason expectations.

I feel like Charlie Brown in the Lucy-with-the-football meme regarding drafting TEs. Every year it’s the same thing. And there’s no middle ground.

“Tight end is deep this year!”

“If you don’t get the elite guys, just wait until the end of your draft.”

“All I want is a set-it-and-forget-it TE. Get your guy in the early rounds!”

Despite us needing multiple RBs and WRs every week, we’ve built entire team-building strategies around the onesies. Let’s check in with the folks that took the expensive options.

Wait, that isn’t Brock Bowers.

Of course, we couldn’t start the season without some drama. But losing our second-round TE to start the season was the scenario drafters couldn’t afford. That pick seemingly went up in smoke. And even if you picked up Michael Mayer, you got TE19 and TE25 finishes as emotional compensation. OK, injury situations are impossible to predict. But we got hit with role changes, too.

Colston Loveland had nine targets in all of September and one of the best-coordinated TD cellys … that turned out to be for nothing. Tucker Kraft is averaging 37 YPG. The 2026 draft top 12 feels underwhelming, but it’s not that bad. 

(Photo by Chris Allen/Yahoo Sports)

Outside of the obvious, if you took a TE1, you’ve got one by total points. But the weekly results have been frustrating. Bowers (yes, the same guy), Kincaid, Warren and Kittle are the only ones with consecutive top-10 performances. That inconsistency is why Isaiah Likely, Juwan Johnson, T.J. Hockenson and Mike Gesicki have slid into the top 12. But there are a couple of takeaways here.

First, I put together a composite profile of a high-end starter using the eight hits from the TE1 ranks.

  • (Average) Route Rate: 80.8%

  • Targets per Route Run: 23.5%

  • Slot Snap Rate: 29.4%

Think of those numbers above as benchmarks. If your guy is close to at least two of these, you’re in the right neighborhood. Plus, hope flickers for Kraft (70%-plus route rate since W2, 21% TPRR) and Loveland (76% route rate, 35% TPRR in W4). But if I relax those thresholds a little, look who bubbles to the top.

  • Dalton Schultz: TE1 in W2

  • Mark Andrews: TE12 in W2, TE8 in W4

  • Pat Freiermuth: TE6 in W1

  • Brenton Strange: TE5 in W4

Freiermuth and Strange benefitted from a (maddening) trend against Cincinnati’s defense. Anyway, the larger point is that usage and on-field deployment should be our focus. A player’s ADP is just one data point. Hanging onto players because of their draft cost is a passive approach to our game. There are short-term pivots we can pick up even as we head into Week 5.

  • Tyler Higbee: 77.9% (Route Rate), 19.3% (TPRR), 22.5% (Slot Snap Rate)

  • Michael Mayer: 79.1%, 19.1%, 17.7%

  • Pat Freiermuth: 71.6%, 15.5%, 46.9%

Tyler Higbee is winning the war of attrition at TE for the Rams at eight targets per game over his last two. The Raiders got their TE1 back, but without a primary WR, Mayer becomes the main tight end as Bowers takes the alpha “WR” role.

Don’t let a decision in August negatively affect your squad come December. By following opportunity trends, we can lower our risk of another dud at such a volume-based position.

Believe me when I say that I understand the emotional response to seeing your draft slot. There’s just something about where you sit in the order. As if, when you make your first pick relative to your leaguemates determines your rank before opening kickoff. That feels especially true when the guys at the front of the line have access to the real heavy hitters.

Based on 12-team Yahoo ADP, the first five selections account for five All-Pro nominations and a hoard of Pro Bowl trips. Just having one of them is like a badge of honor. All anyone has to do is look at your RB1 or WR1 spot, check the name and give you the nod of approval.

But everyone needs more than one starter. And if Week 4 was any indication, production and draft price don’t have a direct correlation. Simply put, you can win from anywhere in the order. 

I took Hayden Winks' idea and built a fantasy points-over-replacement board using half-PPR scoring. Player ADP was the only rule, so I’d assume roster construction preferences would shake things up a bit. But there are landmines everywhere.

(Chart by Chris Allen/Yahoo Sports)

From the gamers who got the early picks to folks sitting at the 1.12, nobody was immune to disappointment. You can look at Team 9 with a bit of optimism, but RB2s have been hard to come by. And we’ve already talked about the ups and downs of drafting TEs. 

In either case, there’s another area where we can change our future. Back in August, I highlighted how I’m approaching the QB position. Using the points-over-replacement board from earlier, let’s zoom in on the first six rounds. A couple of guys stick out, but let’s focus on Jalen Hurts.

Hurts was one of the examples I used as a viable early-round QB. I even emphasized his lack of passing efficiency, but his ability to create as a runner kept him in the conversation. But even that’s taken a step back.

  • Passing Success Rate: 37.3%, 24th (of 28 qualifiers – min. 80 dropbacks)

  • EPA per Dropback: -0.08, 21st 

  • QB Rushing Rate: 13.9%, 6th 

Similar to our expensive TEs, clutching our underperforming high-priced passers hoping for a turnaround puts us behind. Let’s see if we can apply a comparable process for identifying substitute QBs.

  • (Average) Passing Success Rate: 50.0%

  • Pass Rate Over Expectation: -0.1%

  • Rushing Rate: 12.0%

I pulled the average efficiency, team tendency and rushing numbers for the six hits within the top 12 QBs. Afterward, I lowered the values across the board to build an archetype of a passer you could find on your waiver wire that could give you passable results. Once again, the output points us in the right direction.

  • Bryce Young: Three top-8 finishes 

  • Tyler Shough: Three top-8 finishes 

  • Kirk Cousins: Three top-10 finishes

The other point to consider here is that the QBs themselves aren’t always to blame. Let’s revisit Hurts’ situation. No Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith was out this past week and the injuries continue to pile up along the offensive line. Lamar Jackson’s injury is another hurdle gamers will be managing for the next few weeks.

I took the next three games into consideration and found three potential passers who could get me to November.

  • Sam Darnold (Week 5-7 Opponents): 49ers, Broncos, Chiefs

  • Deshaun Watson: Jets, Ravens, Titans 

  • Jacoby Brissett: Lions, Rams, Broncos

Finding other options is something we do at RB and WR every Tuesday. In short, churning the QB position is no different and gives us flexibility that our draft spot couldn’t afford.

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