Michigan vs. Oklahoma prediction, odds, pick for college football Week 2

September 10, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

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Two 1-0 teams from power conferences are set to face off. Oklahoma won against Michigan last year at home, but it hits the road this time around. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Oklahoma-Michigan prediction and pick.

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Oklahoma was dominant in Week 1 against UTEP. John Mateer threw for 225 yards, completing 11 of 17 passes. He also threw three touchdown passes. Mateer, who can run, did not rely on his legs in Week 1, running for just seven yards. Meanwhile, Lloyd Avant was solid out of the backfield, running the ball 15 times for 79 yards. The offense also racked up 401 yards and converted six of 11 third downs. On defense, they held UTEP to just 198 yards and two for 13 on third down in the 51-0 victory.

Meanwhile, it was a debacle of a game for Michigan. The Wolverines scored on the first drive of the game, marching 75 yards in 5:20 to take the 7-0 lead. They then allowed a field goal on the next drive. After punting, Michigan forced a Western Michigan punt, but muffed it. The defense still held firm, and it did not result in points. After the opening touchdown, before the final drive, they punted six times, muffed a punt, fumbled the ball, and were intercepted. Meanwhile, Western Michigan hit three field goals, including one at the end of a 20-play, 71-yard drive that took 13:40 off the clock. Michigan got lucky after a failed Hail Mary attempt, with one second being placed back on the clock, and Michigan scoring on the second Hail Mary attempt.

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Michigan and Oklahoma have faced each other just twice, but never in Ann Arbor. The first time was on New Year’s Day in 1976, when Oklahoma defeated Michigan 14-6 in the Orange Bowl. The second was last year in Norman, when Oklahoma won 24-13.

Odds provided by DraftKings

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Odds

Oklahoma: -5.5 (-110)

Michigan: +5.5 (-110)

Over: 43.5 (-115)

Under: 43.5 (-105)

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Key Injuries

Oklahoma- RB Troy Blaylock (Questionable), LT Michael Fasusi (Doubtful), C Jake Maikkula (Probable), OL Ryan Fodje (Probable), DE Danny Okoye (Probably)

Michigan- OL Ace Hamilton (Out), LT Andrew Babalola (Questionable), TE Hogan Hansen (Questionable), Edge Carter Meadows (Questionable), DE John Henry Daley (Probable), S Rod Moore (Probable)

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Betting Trends

– Oklahoma finished 7-5 against the spread in the regular season last year, and are 1-0 already this year.

– In their last six regular-season non-conference road games, Oklahoma is 4-2 against the spread.

– The under has hit in six of the last eight non-conference games for Oklahoma when facing a Power 4 opponent.

– Michigan is 0-1 against the spread this year, after failing to cover as a 27.5-point favorite.

– Michigan is 3-2 in their last five games as a home underdog.

– The under has hit in six of the last eight home non-conference games for Michigan.

– Oklahoma covered in the 2025 match, while the under hit as well.

Keys to Oklahoma vs. Michigan matchup

On offense, Oklahoma needs to get the ground game working. They ran for 170 yards against UTEP, but that was on 39 attempts, good for just 4.4 yards per carry against a bad defense. Some of that may be on Mateer. He ran 19 times for 74 yards and two touchdowns against Michigan last season. Meanwhile, Lloyd Avant needs to have some breakout runs. He has just one run over ten yards, while running 15 times. A solid running game will also avoid obvious passing downs for Oklahoma. With the fact that Oklahoma’s offensive line is beat up, they need to keep ahead of the chains.

On defense, they have to put Michigan in passing situations, which means slowing down the running game. Brent Venables is great at disguising packages, while also creating difficult-to-read blitz schemes. If Michigan is forced into passing situations, the offensive line struggles to give Underwood enough time agaisnt Western Michigan. Further, Underwood struggled, and this could create turnovers, giving Oklahoma a short field.

For Michigan, Bryce Underwood has to be better. On the first drive of the game, Michigan drove the field and scored a touchdown. On the drive, Underwood completed all six passes he attempted for 57 yards. He also ran for 11 yards and a touchdown. On the final drive, he was two for six for 75 yards and a touchdown. In between, he was just four for ten, passing for 38 yards with an interception. Underwood also has to be willing to run and use his legs. He was the leading rusher for Michigan last time out. He ran nine times for 47 yards and a touchdown.

On defense, Michigan needs to put a spy on John Mateer. Oklahoma has a great RPO game, and controlling that is going to be key. Jyaire Hill is great in coverage, and Michigan has plenty of solid defensive backs. If they can force Oklahoma into passing situations and keep the spy on Mateer, they should be able to slow down the Sooners’ offense.

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

The Oklahoma defense is great and travels well. Last year, the Sooners went 4-1 away from home, but the defense was the main reason, as the offense was much less efficient. Meanwhile, Oklahoma did not allow a touchdown in Week 1, while Michigan did not allow a touchdown as well. Michigan struggled heavily on offense, so their only hope is to win on defense this week. Oklahoma is the better team in this match-up, but overreacting to the horrible Week 1 performance by Michigan could be a mistake. If the defense can keep Michigan in the game, they may be able to cover, but with Underwood’s previous performance, that is unlikely. Oklahoma covers as the under hits.

Final Oklahoma vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick: Oklahoma -5.5 (-110) and Under 43.5 (-105)

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