4 reasons the Colts will -- and won't -- break their postseason drought in 2026
· Yahoo Sports
Another year of optimism paired with glaring question marks. It's time for another season of Indianapolis Colts football.
The Colts will attempt to snap a five-season postseason-less streak and a seven-year drought without a playoff win. Only two teams -- the Falcons and Jets -- hold respective streaks that exceed Indianapolis'. Make no mistake, this is a Colts team in Year 4 with head coach Shane Steichen and Year 10 with general manager Chris Ballard capable of breaking through and even winning a round or two in the playoffs.
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To do so, though, the Colts will have to overcome a few significant questions or holes. Below are four reasons why this Colts team is built to make it to the postseason and four reasons to doubt this will be any different.
The Colts will make the playoffs in 2026 because...
THIS OFFENSE CAN STILL BE ELITE
Remember that Colts offense that took the league by storm the first eight weeks of last season? The one that was scoring at a historic clip – its points per game, points per drive and scoring percentages among the best in league history. The one gobbling up yards (6.5 per play) among the 15 best in NFL history with a four-headed monster in the passing game, a running back gunning for an unheard of (in recent years) but completely legitimate MVP award and a quarterback whose performance under pressure was best in the NFL?
That offense? It’s nearly all still there. Same coaches. Same quarterback. Same skill position guys – save a Keenan Allen-for-Michael Pittman Jr. swap.
It’s easy to forget in the chaos that was the back-half of the Colts’ 2025 season, but things didn’t begin to go downhill until Daniel Jones was playing on a broken leg for two-plus games – taking away any semblance of mobility he had, forcing him to get rid of the ball quicker and making him almost defenseless up against any decent amount of pressure. And even with a hobbled Jones, the Colts were mere plays away from beating the Chiefs and Texans. Before Jones’ injury, Indianapolis was 2-2 against future playoff teams and throttled the rest.
If there’s any reason to hope that the 2026 Colts can reach new heights in the Chris Ballard era it's that all the pieces are still there.
DANIEL JONES LOOKS AS GOOD AS EVER
As someone who’s watched the entire Colts preseason action, save one day of joint practice in New England, I can confidently say Jones’ torn Achilles tendon seems to have healed better than anyone could’ve expected. And that’s not to say Jones has looked flawless since he stepped back onto the field.
There were days in the spring when Jones’ shuffling in drop-backs or in moving around the pocket during individual drills was clunky, disjointed and clearly the footwork of someone who was tentative, stiff and a bit slow. But we’ve seen none of that during training camp.
Jones has said himself that maybe the only thing lacking compared to his healthy self from last October is his top-end speed, and only in rare moments does he ever need to pull that out of the bag. If that’s 90% of what it is, and he can otherwise drop back, drift around in the pocket and fire off that right leg like he has before, there’s no reason to think he’ll be anything but the quarterback we saw through 10 games a year ago – accurate, getting rid of the ball when needed, rarely sacked and able to dissect defenses.
COLTS' SECONDARY OPENS UP LOU ANARUMO'S PLAYBOOK
Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo loves nothing more than to be able to play man-coverage in the passing game and unleash the first two levels of his defense in every way imaginable. With a healthy back end that features All-Pro corners Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, standout second-year nickel corner Justin Walley, veteran safety Camryn Bynum and ball-hawking rookie safety A.J. Haulcy, Anarumo has just that.
The man-coverage capabilities of Gardner and Ward alone give Anarumo the flexibility of, depending on the players on the other side of the ball, bringing the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage in blitzes, confidently using his linebackers to plug holes in the run game or using some combination to double-up a deep-threat wideout when the situation calls for it.
Having two high-level corners opens up Anarumo’s entire playbook, one where his schemes change depending on the week and where he’ll blitz when you least expect it – or when you least can afford it. And it may be necessary, given the lack of a tried and true pressure-setter on the edge (more on that in a minute), but if there ever was a tandem at cornerback to help a team compensate for some deficiencies on the defensive line, it’s the duo Anarumo has at his disposal.
SPENCER SHRADER CAN GIVE YOU POINTS THE MOMENT YOU CROSS MIDFIELD
Spencer Shrader’s leg combined with the NFL’s recently modified kickoff rules and one of the best kickoff return teams in the league can prove to be a game-changer for the Colts. In 2025, Indianapolis ranked No. 2 in the NFL in kickoff return yards per attempt (28.8 yards), meaning they needed roughly 20 yards or so every time they received a kickoff to make it to midfield.
And from what we’ve seen from the tail end of the regular season, midfield is just about all Shrader needs to boot one through the uprights. During his first five weeks in 2025 when he was embarking on his first full season as an NFL placekicker, Shrader’s long was just 52 yards and his lone miss in that stretch was from 51 yards in a blowout win over the Titans.
But his potential is much deeper than that. As he’s come into his own throughout training camp, Shrader has makes from 60 and 61 yards in preseason games. Shrader’s leg gives you the belief that in the right situation, you have a legitimate shot to score points every time you cross midfield.
The Colts won't make the playoffs in 2026 because...
UNCERTAINTY AROUND ALEX PIERCE
The Colts have been adamant for months that Alec Pierce would be ready for Week 1 after undergoing late-March ankle surgery, and it appears he should be ready for Sunday – he practiced ‘full’ for the first time all offseason on Thursday.
But what level of Pierce are we going to see?
The role they’ve spoken about using him in – taking Pierce from the league’s best deep threat and turning him into an every-down option – would make the fifth-year wideout a sure-fire No. 1 receiver, increasing his 84 targets substantially. Pierce’s numbers, if everything goes properly, should increase substantially.
The problem? He lost essentially an entire offseason to perfect that craft. Yes, he has a year of working with Daniel Jones under his belt, but changing roles takes time – and more importantly, it takes repetition and trial and error and practice against cornerbacks, all of which Pierce will have done very little of since the end of last year.
And when you combine that with an undersized Josh Downs in two-receiver sets and Keenan Allen, who will have had less than a month with the team before playing in his first regular season game, and it just makes you wonder if this passing game will be hitting on all cylinders early on.
IT'S NOT UNREALISTIC FOR THE COLTS TO START 0-3
For a team that can’t afford too many setbacks, a three-game stretch to start the season against three of the AFC’s best couldn’t be much more daunting. Yes, two of them – the Ravens and the Chiefs – didn’t make the playoffs a year ago, but both are consistently two of the best in the conference with quarterbacks that can dice up a defense.
Forced to face defensive stars like Baltimore’s Trey Hendrickson and Houston’s Will Anderson Jr., or quarterbacks like the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson or the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes all across a three-week stretch leave little room for error. Although Houston has twice in the last decade -- 2018, 2025 -- proven it’s possible to come back from a 0-3 start and make the playoffs – it’s an immensely difficult hurdle to have to clear.
The Colts are presently underdogs in their first five games of the season. ‘Find a way’ is the team’s motto in 2026 – one that will be put to the test early against one of the tougher opening stretches across the league.
COLTS FAILED TO PLUG A HOLE AT EDGE RUSHER IN FREE AGENCY
With as much strength that lies in the backend of the Colts defense, the line remains suspect. Missing out on Hendrickson in free agency, at a time where so many of the other big fish edge rushers were off the board, means the Colts will be forced to piecemeal the position opposite Laiatu Latu in 2026. Presumed starter Arden Key is serviceable but only recently emerged as an every-game starter during his latest stint in Tennessee on a less-than-stellar defense.
Behind him, the Colts have another veteran with questionable results – Micheal Clemons – and rookies or second-year players (Caden Curry, George Gumbs Jr. and Jaylahn Tuimoloau) who don’t yet have the skillset to be an every-down player. Rotating guys means they’ll be fresh throughout a game and keeps the offensive line on their toes as they have to manage different skillsets and looks.
On the flipside, it also means you don’t have anyone you trust is good enough to be an effective every-down player, and that’s an issue. Don’t be surprised if Indianapolis has one of the highest blitz rates in the league this year but blitzes can lead to chunk yardage if the front seven doesn’t get to the quarterback.
THE COLTS ARE AN INJURY OR TWO AWAY FROM DISASTER
Injuries derailed the Colts a year ago, and there are few positions where this roster could seamlessly handle one. At quarterback, the Colts have a pair of backups who have both started games but neither looked consistent or sharp in the preseason. On the line, the Colts have failed to find a proven backup center, and an injury elsewhere would involve playing a rookie in Jalen Farmer. Injuries at wide receiver, tight end or running back involve a significant dropoff.
We saw last year what happens when you pull DeForest Buckner out of the Jenga tower that is the Colts’ defensive line, and Indianapolis did nothing to add a sure-fire playmaker around him to absorb double-teams in case the 32-year-old misses games again in 2026. At linebacker, the Colts are stocked with an under-performing veteran and a slew of inexperienced players with upside but who are still learning. And at cornerback, the Colts enter 2026 with a starter in Ward who has said he’ll be managing a back injury week-to-week. Behind him, the Colts have one serviceable corner in Cam Taylor-Britt – who will miss Week 1 while suspended.
That’s not to say that most teams in the league wouldn’t be downgraded at any given position due to an injury, but it’s stark when you take a look at how steep the dropoff is at just about every position. This is a very good football team capable of sticking with just about every team in the league when healthy, but injuries are bound to strike at some point, and it’s reasonable to wonder if this version of the Colts is built to withstand them.
Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 4 reasons the Colts will -- and won't -- break their postseason drought in 2026
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