What's at stake when the Chicago Cubs face the Brewers this week?
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The Milwaukee Brewers didn't exactly cloak themselves in glory during a 3-4 stretch against the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds last week, but with the same teams heading into American Family Field (starting Sept. 7), the Brewers' eight-game lead in the Central heading into last week has only been trimmed to seven.
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The Brewers only really need to stave off a sweep at the hands of the Cubs to still feel comfortable with their division lead heading into the weekend; even one win should keep things relatively calm. The Brewers could easily clinch a playoff spot on the homestand, although it won't be the first two days against the Cubs.
The division will probably have to wait until the Brewers' final road trip.
Here's what to know about the three-game series against Chicago that begins on Labor Day.
Who's pitching in the series between the Brewers and Cubs?
All three games will air on Brewers.TV and AM-620 WTMJ radio. The game will also air on FOX on Tuesday.
- Sept. 7, 1:10 p.m.: Milwaukee LHP Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.57) vs. Chicago LHP Matthew Boyd (8-3, 4.05).
- Sept. 8, 6:40 p.m.: Milwaukee RHP Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.97) vs. Chicago LHP David Peterson (7-8, 5.39).
- Sept. 8, 6:40 p.m.: Milwaukee RHP Logan Henderson (9-3, 2.48) vs. Chicago RHP Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.38).
Didn't the Brewers just see these three Cubs pitchers?
They sure did. A lot will feel the same this week with the Cubs and Reds back on the calendar for six games at American Family Field after the Brewers played on the road against those teams this past week. The Brewers won't see Clay Holmes, who held them in check during a 17-3 shellacking, but did do enough against Boyd and Peterson to secure wins (with a little help from the Cubs bullpen).
Henderson and Gausman will rematch after Gausman and his split-finger fastball flummoxed the Brewers in a 2-1 loss Thursday. The Brewers got to Boyd for three runs in 5⅓ innings and tagged Peterson for six in 3⅔.
Can the Brewers clinch a playoff spot during the series?
Yes, but it requires a lot to go right. The Brewers magic number to secure a playoff spot is seven, with the Diamondbacks and Padres straddling the final wild-card spot in the National League with 68 losses each. Those two have a three-game series against each other still on the schedule later in September, so we know one of them will get at least two more losses. That means the magic number is really five right now (since the Brewers have to only finish ahead of one of them to lock up a playoff spot).
The Brewers have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks and do not against the Padres, so the head-to-head number for the Brewers to officially finish better than Arizona is 6 and San Diego is 7.
Easiest path? Brewers sweep the Cubs, knocking three off the magic number and the Diamondbacks lose all three games at Kansas City, knocking the other three off. The best Arizona can do after that scenario is tie the Brewers at the end of the year, and the Brewers would have the tiebreaker.
Another scenario would involve the Brewers winning all three games and both San Diego and Arizona losing two of three (the Padres face Washington). Then, the Brewers would be in because their magic number to "eliminate" either one of them would be two, and the Brewers know one of them is guaranteed to lose twice more, so it's a done deal even if they don't know which team is the one "eliminated."
The last scenario would be Arizona and San Diego both getting swept and the Brewers winning two of three. We're in the same place as above, where the magic number is two but one of them is getting two more losses eventually to account for the final slashes off the magic number.
How early can the Brewers win the division?
A sweep against the Cubs would really help and account for half of the remaining 12 on the magic number tally. The Brewers would still be able to secure the Central by the end of the homestand on Sunday, but it requires nearly everything to go right. It's far more likely it happens on the upcoming three-city road trip to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Philadelphia.
What do the Brewers need to do to get the tiebreaker over the Cubs?
Milwaukee needs to win just one game to lock up the season series and hold the tiebreaker. Thus, while the magic number is 12 heading into the week, a win Monday would actually slice that down to 9, since the goal is no longer to finish with an outright better record; a tie will do. The Brewers are 6-4 against the Cubs this year and need to get to seven wins in the 13-game season series.
How have the Cubs been playing?
The Cubs just won a series in Miami after splitting four games against the Brewers at Wrigley Field, but the Cubs had lost four of five series prior to that, and the one win over the White Sox required two walk-off victories. The Brewers have been scuffling a bit in the past few weeks, but they're still 12-8 over their last 20 games, while the Cubs are 9-11.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a behemoth against everyone else but quiet against Milwaukee
With his 40th home run on Sept. 6, outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is one step closer to winning the National League MVP award, especially with Shohei Ohtani ailing and seemingly unlikely to pitch the rest of the way. The defensive wizard center fielder PCA has a .946 OPS this year, with 33 stolen bases and 96 RBIs.
The funny thing is, Brewers fans haven't seen the best of PCA. Though he did hit a tough Logan Henderson pitch out to center field to account for Chicago's runs in a 2-1 win Thursday, it's his only extra-base hit against the Brewers this year in 10 games. He's batting 4 for 37 (.108) this season against Milwaukee. In his career, it's a .164 batting average and .620 OPS.
Either the Brewers know the best way to attack Crow-Armstrong or he's due.
How bad has the Cubs bullpen been?
Much has been made about how bad the Chicago Cubs bullpen has been lately, and it hasn't been dazzling. The Cubs have a 5.16 ERA since Aug. 20, though five teams in MLB have been worse, and Cincinnati, the other team in Milwaukee's recent orbit, has a 5.12 ERA. In the small sample since September started, the Cubs aren't even in the bottom third in bullpen ERA.
For the year, Chicago's 3.98 ERA is 12th best in baseball. You know who has been good out of the Cubs bullpen in longer relief? Aaron Civale.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What's at stake when the Chicago Cubs face the Brewers this week?