APPLE CUP PREVIEW: What Is the Path for WSU to Win the Apple Cup?

Happy Apple Cup Saturd— whoops, the game is tomorrow. Oh well. College Football is crazy these days. I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiv— wait, it’s actually Week 1.

Nothing is more emblematic of the current state of College Football than a Labor Day Weekend Sunday Apple Cup. It may feel weird for some fans, and the added element of the financial disparity created by NIL might have some Cougar fans disinterested. But not for many, and not for Kirby Moore and his team.

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As I am sure Kirby would tell you, this is an opportunity. This is a chance to be the team to win the first-ever Week 1 Apple Cup. This is a chance to beat the #17-ranked team in the country. This is a chance to prove yourself on primetime NBC, in a standalone game, to the entire nation.

On most sportsbooks, the Cougs are 23.5-point underdogs. So, are you sure there is even a chance?

Let’s break it down.

HOW WSU CAN WIN THE APPLE CUP

First of all, let’s answer the question: Can the Cougars really win this game?

The answer is yes.

You are talking about a school that went on the road to Playoff Semifinalist Ole Miss as 30-point underdogs and lost 24-21.

Even this opening weekend we have seen how competitive the Group of 6 can be. Umass whose win total hovered around 2.5 wins this offseason went to Rutgers and blew out the Scarlet Knights. As this article is being written, Boise state is knotted with #2 Oregon on the road. The gap isn’t as big as they want you to believe, anything can still happen.

I know what you might be saying: But the Cougs got blown out in the Apple Cup.

Well, that is what the final score says, and certainly what Washington’s offense would contend, but the game was better than some might remember. The score finished 59-24, but it was 31-24 with 11 minutes to go in the game, meaning UW piled on 28 points in the final 10 minutes.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think WSU’s defense had much of a chance in their one-on-one battles with Denzel Boston or Jonah Coleman, but they didn’t get burned at the line of scrimmage. Both teams had the same number of tackles for loss and sacks: seven TFLs and three sacks.

UW has to replace the bulk of its production from last season, and the Apple Cup in particular. Boston and Coleman departed for the NFL, both corners did the same, Vines-Bright and Mohammed hit the portal, and they have three new starters on the defensive line.

The Cougs will look to capitalize on that lack of returning production.

KEYS FOR WSU

Win the line of scrimmage on defense.

UW’s running backs are the group they bring in with the most uncertainty. If you can force Demond Williams Jr. and Dezmon Roebuck to beat you through the air, that is most likely your best chance.

Matyius McClain and Linuz Zunk will have to cause chaos off the edge and force Demond into bad decisions.

Establish the run.

Caden Pinnick is making his first start at the FBS level, and nothing can help an inexperienced QB more than a calming running game.

Will WSU’s offensive line be able to stand the test against the Huskies’ defensive line? While unproven, that group will certainly be talented.

The running back room is easily WSU’s strongest group, headlined by returners Kirby Vorhees and Potato Bowl star Maxwell Woods. One of the coaching staff’s problems last year was a lack of creativity in the running game, which strained the offensive line’s capabilities. Look for this group to try to ease that burden with some inventive schemes and get the RBs some space.

Jedd Fisch is 8-25 when he gets out-rushed in his head coaching career.

Play with nothing to lose.

WSU is a massive underdog, and a close loss would look awesome on their resume. UW stands to lose a lot, especially in a close game down the stretch.

The Cougars should play with the mindset that this game is a win-win.

I don’t think that is a loser’s mindset. It’s okay to be comfortable with a respectable road loss. They should believe they can win, because they can, and they should believe they are better, because that’s how athletes are. But there should be something freeing about the circumstances.

When the Tampa Bay Rays play the Yankees, they go in there believing they are the better team while knowing that they won’t face the same criticism or backlash for losing to a team with more than three times their payroll ($295 million compared to $89.6 million).

And look who is sitting in first place?

The 84-57 Rays, with a four-game lead on the Yanks.

Case in point.

Don’t lose the war of attrition in Week 1.

Adam Lewis talked on Caple’s podcast about Armani Marsh missing the 2022 Apple Cup. I don’t need to remind anyone what Penix did to the backups that night. With the matchup taking place in week 1, WSU shouldn’t have any serious depth deficiencies to worry about.

KEYS FOR UW

UW might have lost its top-end talent, but they always seem to replace it. Not to mention, their star quarterback returns, and they tote one of the best linebacker corps in the Big Ten.

If UW reloads like they think they have, they will be a massive challenge for WSU, with a roster whose salaries pale in comparison.

Give Demond the opportunity to make plays.

We saw how good Williams Jr. can be in Pullman last season, and when UW struggled, it was because Demond wasn’t given enough opportunity to be explosive.

If UW’s offensive line is as good as they believe, with five-star true freshman Kodi Greene starting at left tackle, they will look to give Demond as much opportunity to be creative as possible.

He is a dynamo with the ball in his hands, and the longer he has to decide what to do with the ball, including being able to take off on his own, the more dangerous he will be.

Create pressure on Caden Pinnick.

Pinnick struggled in his visit to Husky Stadium last season with UC Davis. This time, he will be behind a much better offensive line, most of whom are returners, with better weapons by his side.

While WSU had a strong pass-blocking line last season, it wasn’t quite as good in the run game. If the Huskies become unconcerned with the run and start sending numbers at Pinnick, he could be in trouble.

Pinnick will need to show patience and poise in a way he did against FCS competition last season, but not exactly in fall camp.

Throw the first punch.

If you are Washington, you don’t even want this game to be close. You want to set the tone early.

Look for them to try to be really physical and strong early, and if they don’t bring that intensity, things could get interesting.

All in all, despite all of the abnormalities, this still feels like the Apple Cup, at least to me.

The spat over the band and the debate over the game feel just like normal.

For me, the best path to a WSU victory is similar to what we saw when the Cougs traveled to Madison in 2022 and upset the Badgers.

A respectable Cougar team and a respectable season, but Cam Ward hadn’t quite found his legs yet, and the Cougar defense stepped up and made some big plays happen in the clutch. The offense found its explosives when it needed to, and they got the job done.

I think the offense can be better than they were on that day, but there are so many unknowns that it’s hard to project.

Regardless of the result, I will always love this game and what it means to this state, and I hope we get to keep experiencing it for the rest of our lives.

It truly feels like Christmas as a kid.

The Apple Cup will be on NBC at 1 p.m. Sunday, September 6, with WSU coming to Husky Stadium as 23.5-point underdogs.

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