LILLEY: Carney heading to Halifax for sub announcement en route to NATO
· Toronto Sun
Prime Minister Mark Carney will stop in Halifax on Monday for an announcement about making Canada “more secure, resilient, and prosperous.” Carney will visit Canadian Forces Base Halifax, home to the Royal Canadian Navy, alongside Vice-Admiral Dan Charlebois, commander of the navy, to announce Canada’s pick for a new submarine fleet.
Carney’s office declined to comment on Sunday after the Toronto Sun revealed that he would be stopping in Halifax to announce the decision on his way to the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey.
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The decision has been a long time coming, Canada has four submarines that were built for Britain in the 1980s and bought used by Canada in the 1990s. Only one of them is currently operational, which is far from optimal for a country sided by three oceans.
Speculation had been ramping up in defence circles in recent weeks about a pending announcement. The government had originally promised a decision by the end of June, then on June 17, Stephen Fuhr, Carney’s secretary of state for defence procurement, said Canadians could expect a decision within 30 days.
With Carney heading to Ankara for a NATO summit where there is a big emphasis on member countries increasing spending and capabilities, the stop in Halifax only made sense. The first day of the conference in Turkey is devoted to the defence industry with a promise of a “big reveal” on new spending.
Will Canada pick Germany, South Korea or both?
The question that remains is whether the Carney government will award the contract to Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) or South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean. There is also the option, subject of much speculation, that the contract will be split with the Korean bid getting six subs and the German/Norwegian bid getting six subs.
The German Type 212CD is widely regarded as being exceptionally quiet and well suited to anti-submarine warfare and intelligence-gathering missions, particularly in areas such as the Arctic and North Atlantic. The Korean KSS-III, meanwhile, is larger, has greater range and endurance, and is considered better suited for long-distance deployments across Canada’s vast maritime approaches.
If money were no object, buying six of each submarine and operating a mixed fleet could make sense. The navy would gain access to the strengths of both designs and could potentially speed up delivery timelines by drawing from two production lines rather than one. Relying on a single supplier could mean waiting until well into the 2040s before all 12 submarines are in service.
That said, money is an object and running two different submarines with such a small fleet would increase costs significantly across training, maintenance and supply chains.
Still, there are arguments in favour of such a move, especially from a geopolitical standpoint. Splitting the contract would see Canada have long-term strategic military partnerships with NATO allies in Europe and with the growing Indo-Pacific region via the Korean bid.
It would also enhance Canada’s naval capabilities.
Top navy officials say they are open to a split fleet
In discussions with top officials in the Royal Canadian Navy, it has become clear that they are open to working with a mixed fleet. This is in stark contrast to the opposition within the Royal Canadian Air Force to a mixed fleet of fighter jets consisting of both F-35s and the Swedish made Gripen.
That might be due to the fact that the Korean made KSS-III and the German Type 212CD are both considered viable submarines for Canada. Both can do the job, just differently.
One of the big questions that remains, if the fleet is split, is what happens to the promised industrial benefits. Both companies/countries vying for this contract have made considerable offers of what their bid would bring to Canada.
The Korean bid has promoted partnerships with Algoma Steel in Ontario and floated the possibility of Hyundai establishing a Canadian manufacturing facility for hydrogen-powered long-haul freight trucks. The German bid has has focused its industrial pitch on long-term defence partnerships such as working with CAE in Montreal on submarine training systems and simulators, partnering with Seaspan Shipyards in British Columbia on maintenance and sustainment, and integrating Canadian firms into its global supply chain.
Whatever Carney announces on Monday in Halifax, the end result will shape the Royal Canadian Navy, and Canada’s defence posture, for a generation.