What Will the Ducks Look Like if They Match Leo Carlsson’s Offer Sheet?
· Yahoo Sports
Here we are, sitting at the crossroads of what will be a franchise-altering move for the Anaheim Ducks. Their decision, whether or not to match the Philadelphia Flyers’ offer sheet to Leo Carlsson.
The Flyers tendered a five-year, $90 million contract to Carlsson on Friday, which makes him the highest-paid player in the NHL. Yes, he will be making more than Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon, who all finished in the Top-3 in Hart Trophy voting this past season.
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Flyers general manager Daniel Brière has put Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek in a bind, just two days after a report came out that the Ducks would be willing to match any offer that came their way regarding Carlsson, who is currently a restricted free agent (RFA). Not only is Brière looking to acquire a very talented player via a seldom-used tactic in the NHL, but he is also trying to hamstring the Ducks monetarily if he's unable to do so. Here’s how the Ducks would look if they match the Flyers’ offer sheet.
Outlook if the Ducks DO MatchCongratulations! You’ve kept your No. 1 center and now have control of him for the next five seasons. After trading away Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish in consecutive summers, the Ducks can’t afford to lose the player they drafted second overall in 2023. Carlsson is emerging as a young star. His hot start to the 2025-26 season even had him in early Hart Trophy talks.
Unfortunately, a Morel-Lavallée lesion that he suffered sometime in December began to hamper his performance. It required surgery to be removed, forcing him to miss the Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina, where he would have been part of the Swedish squad. But the rest of his season wasn’t too shabby, and he had bright spots during the team’s first playoff run in eight seasons (11 points in 12 games) after putting up 67 points in 70 regular season games as a 21-year-old. That’s someone you build your team around.
Now, for the salary cap situation. By matching Carlsson’s offer sheet, the Ducks are now projected to have just over $17 million in cap space (per PuckPedia). The Flyers’ offer sheet is also front-loaded and includes several signing bonuses, something none of the Ducks’ current contracts include. Carlsson will receive approximately $85 million of that $90 million via signing bonuses. This deal also walks Carlsson straight to unrestricted free agency, at age 26. Will he be worth $18 million per year by then? Who’s to say, but it’s a little easier to stomach this deal thanks to the rising cap and several contracts coming off the books after this upcoming season.
However, the Ducks still have to sign RFAs Cutter Gauthier and Pavel Mintyukov to new contracts, along with several “minor” RFAs like Tyson Hinds. Gauthier is not offer sheet-eligible, which is quite fortunate. He likely would have been targeted by several teams looking to capitalize on the Ducks’ financial situation. But the past has shown us that Verbeek has not been very proactive when it comes to nailing down long-term deals for his RFAs.
Mar 24, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Anaheim Ducks forward Cutter Gauthier (61) skates against the Vancouver Canucks in the first period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn ImagesZegras and Jamie Drysdale had prolonged contract disputes that leaked into training camp in 2023, as did McTavish last year in 2024. Troy Terry and Lukáš Dostál had deals finalized only after both players had filed for arbitration. Terry’s deal was famously finalized moments before his arbitration hearing was scheduled to begin. The current situation with Carlsson is yet another mark. It's possible that a similar scenario could play out with Gauthier, who scored 41 goals last season and will be relied on to carry a large part of the offensive load, whether or not Carlsson remains. The absence of Terry for the first 2-3 months of the season due to hip impingement surgery makes re-signing Gauthier even more of a priority.
Mintyukov, on the other hand, is offer sheet-eligible, and there have already been reports that several teams are planning to submit offer sheets to his camp in an attempt to pry him away from Anaheim. A large offer sheet to Mintyukov could be disastrous for Anaheim, as they attempt to maneuver Carlsson and Gauthier’s eventual numbers, along with potentially matching a Mintyukov offer sheet, too. They’d have very little wiggle room to add any more impact players this summer and would need to rely on several prospects to fill full-time NHL roles adequately. Letting Mintyukov walk would make a relatively paper-thin blue line look almost transparent.
Eventually, Calder Trophy finalist Beckett Sennecke will also need an extension. If his 60-point rookie season is any indication of how the rest of his NHL career will pan out, he too will be in line for a big-money contract. Will it be possible for the Ducks to fit all three of Carlsson, Gauthier and Sennecke's contracts under the cap, while still fielding a competitive team?
The upcoming week will be fascinating, as Verbeek has until July 10 (if he so chooses) to decide whether or not to match the Flyers’ offer sheet.
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