Germany 1-1 (3-4 PKs) Paraguay: Initial Reactions and Observations

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FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 29: Orlando Gill #12 of Paraguay celebrates with teammates after Jose Canale #13 scores the winning penalty in a penalty shootout during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match between Germany and Paraguay at Boston Stadium on June 29, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Fulltime Observations

  • Paraguay executed their strategy better than Germany. Paraguay sat very deep, played physically, and encouraged low percentage crosses on the way to a penalty kick battle.
  • I did not agree with Jonathan Tah’s goal being overturned by VAR. In the full play, it appeared that Waldemar Anton was pushed into the keeper by the Paraguay defender, then bumped backwards after the keeper nudged Anton. Anton did the best he could to avoid the incidental contact.
  • Joshua Kimmich should never play right back ever again. He is too effective as a central midfielder to be pushed to the edges of the formation.
  • After getting hacked for 60 minutes, Jamal Musiala finally took matters into his own hands and earned himself a yellow card. If the referee refuses to protect a player, the player must handle it himself. This is a long overdue lesson for Musiala to learn.
  • Manuel Neuer did enough in the shootout but Kai Havertz, Nick Woltemade, and Jonathan Tah missed their chances.
  • Paraguay goalkeeper Orlando Gill had a fantastic performance. He made two big saves in the PK shootout and six more saves during the match.

Thanks for joining us on today’s wild ride! Germany will head back home completely heartbroken while Paraguay will head to Philadelphia on Saturday, July 4th to play the winner of the France-Sweden contest.

FT: Paraguay eliminates Germany 1-1 (4-3).

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PK (Round 6): Paraguay wins the shootout 4-3. Jonathan Tah sends Orlando Gill the wrong way but sends it over the post. José Canale buries it for the win.

PK (Round 5): Germany tied 3-3. Nadiem Amiri keeps Germany alive! Manuel Neuer with a clutch save against Fabián Balbuena!!!

PK (Round 4): Paraguay still up 3-2. Nick Woltemade gets stonewalled by Orlando Gill. Antonio Sanabria shanks it wide!

PK (Round 3): Paraguay up 3-2. Jamal Musiala barely beats Orlando Gill to the side netting. Matías Galarza makes Manuel Neuer guess wrong again.

PK (Round 2): Paraguay up 2-1. Joshua Kimmich easily scores and pumps up the crowd. Gustavo Gómez sends Manuel Neuer the wrong way.

PK(Round 1): Paraguay up 1-0. Kai Havertz hits it right at the keeper. Mauricio barely beats Manuel Neuer to the right.

FT: We’re headed to penalty kicks!

120’+2: Substitution. Fabián Balbuena replaces Junior Alonso.

117’: Yellow card. Matías Galarza is booked for his own retaliation foul on Jamal Musiala.

115’: Yellow card. Jamal Musiala is booked for a retaliation foul after a number of cheap tackles against him.

110’: Substitutions. Nadiem Amiri and Malick Thiaw replace Florian Wirtz and Antonio Rüdiger. Germany is out of substitutions.

106’: Yellow card. Kai Havertz is booked for a reckless foul.

105’: Germany still tied 1-1 after 15 minutes of extra time. 15 more minutes to go…

102’: Nathaniel Brown’s corner finds a leaping Jonathan Tah on the backpost but the goal is overturned by VAR due to a foul on Waldemar Anton.

99’: Substitutions. Antonio Sanabria and Braian Ojeda replace Juan Cáceres and Damián Bobadilla.

90’: Substitution. Gustavo Velázquez replaces Miguel Almirón.

Second Half Observations

  • Germany spent the first 10 minutes of the second half whipping in bad crosses. Eventually one found its mark and Kai Havertz’s flick-on header was enough to bring the match level.
  • Florian Wirtz spent a lot of the second half roaming freely around the attacking third. It requires more energy but it clearly makes him a more effective player.
  • Leon Goretzka brought a renewed fire to the pitch. He was flying around to make extra effort plays. The squad responded well.
  • The substitutes have been useful and are all playing their roles effectively.

We’re headed to extra time! There will be two 15-minute periods. If the score is still tied after 120 minutes, we’ll head to a penalty shootout. Both teams will be allowed an extra (sixth) substitution.

End of Regulation: We’re headed to extra time tied at 1-1.

90’: Five minutes of stoppage time.

88’: Substitution. Nick Woltemade replaces Leroy Sané.

79’: Substitution. Waldemar Anton replaces Aleksandar Pavlović, moving Joshua Kimmich into the midfield.

78’: Kai Havertz almost scores another header!

70’: Hydration break. The game is opening up with roughly 20 minutes to go.

65’: Yellow card. Andrés Cubas is booked for clipping Kai Havertz.

63’: Substitution. Jamal Musiala replaces Deniz Undav.

55’: Substitution. Gustavo Caballero and Mauricio replace Gabriel Ávalos and Julio Enciso.

54’:GOOOAAALLL! Germany tied 1-1. Florian Wirtz’s cross finds Kai Havertz for a clever header flick!

46’: Substitution. Leon Goretzka replaces Felix Nmecha.

Halftime Observations

  • Germany dominated possession (79%) but have a single shot on target that was debatably going wide. Paraguay showed zero interest in touching the ball outside of their own box…until the goal that will make the second half even more boring to watch.
  • Florian Wirtz flashed early but disappeared again. Perhaps he needs to move into the half spaces to be more effective, allowing Nathaniel Brown to be involved.
  • Aleksandar Pavlović continues to operate in individual attack mode, completely different from his distribution style at Bayern Munich. His passes have been better but his dribbling and lack of physicality on the ball have been easily defended. Ironically, this would have been a perfect match for Tom Bischof to be on the pitch.
  • If Leroy Sané won’t even try to dribble at Junior Alonso, he shouldn’t be in the starting XI. Julian Nagelsmann claims he is judged by his work rate and right now his passive attitude is wasting space on the right wing.
  • Deniz Undav replaced Jamal Musiala in the starting XI and recorded a whooping SEVEN touches in the first half. Yikes!
  • Germany should still win this game but someone needs to light a fire under them.

HT: Germany down 1-0 at the break.

42’: Goal, Paraguay. Germany down 1-0. Matías Galarza’s cross finds an unmarked Julio Enciso for a powerful header in the middle of the box.

23’: Hydration break. Germany dominating possession but still does not have a shot on target.

1’: LET’S GOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Julian Nagelsmann has finally caved into the pressure to start Deniz Undav after a series of stellar performances as a substitute. More shockingly, Nagelsmann has chosen to remove Jamal Musiala from the starting lineup to make room for Undav. Musiala is still listed as a sub and will likely be the first player off the bench. Bayern Munich’s underperforming midfielder Aleksandar Pavlović has kept his spot in the starting XI for one more game.

Germany clinched Group E in short order by defeating Curaçao and Ivory Coast. Julian Nagelsmann opted to play the starters against Ecuador and was punished accordingly as the team looked lethargic, uninterested, and disconnected against a hungry South American side that ultimately pulled out a 2-1 victory over the Germans. Germany will have a chance to fix the issue in the Round of 32 against Paraguay.

Paraguay finished in third place of Group D behind the United States and Australia. A win over Türkiye and a draw against Australia proved sufficient to push Paraguay into the knockout stages, thanks to the new 48-team format that allows 32 teams to advance.

Prediction

Germany wins 3-1. Manuel Neuer seems unlikely to keep a clean sheet but this match will be all Germany. After a poor showing against Ecuador, Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz will both score in the first half. Germany will let their guard down on a free kick early in the second half but Musiala will quickly strike back for his first brace in a competitive match since December 2024.

Match Info

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA

Date: Monday, June 29th, 2026

Time: 4:30pm local time (EST)

TV/streaming: Fox, Telemundo, Find Your Country

Odds: Germany (-280), Draw (+400), Paraguay (+700)

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