Will Louisiana baseball make the NCAA Tournament? See latest projections
· Yahoo Sports
Before its explosive run in the 2026 Sun Belt Conference Baseball Championship, Louisiana baseball was on the outside looking in when it came to the NCAA Tournament.
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Now, with four tournament wins under their belt, the Ragin’ Cajuns (38-22, 19-15) can practically taste an at-large bid to a regionals. The Cajuns have quickly become one of the hottest teams moving off the bubble through conference tournament play, snagging two wins against No. 24 Coastal Carolina.
The last win over Coastal sent the Chanticleers home in the semifinals round. UL still has another game and possibly more before Selection Monday, taking on Texas State on May 23 with a trip to the championship game on the line.
Here’s where the Cajuns stand in the latest NCAA Tournament projections as of Saturday night.
Louisiana baseball NCAA Tournament resume
As of May 23, UL’s rating percentage index (RPI), which is used to judge strength of schedule, stands at No. 36 by NCAA’s index and No. 33 by D1 Baseball’s index.
The Cajuns are 8-9 in Quad 1 games, 9-5 in Quad 2 games and a combined 21-8 in Quad 3-4 games. They have a strength of schedule ranking of No. 43 and have snagged five wins against Top 25 teams.
Saturday night's matchup against Texas State won’t represent a Quad 1 opportunity but if UL is to win, they could possibly have a Quad 1 matchup if it faces No. 12 Southern Mississippi in the championship game Sunday. As an Sun Belt team, regional spots are limited, with only two teams making the tournament last season. This year, many are projecting that three or more SBC teams could make the tournament.
Louisiana baseball NCAA Tournament projections
This will be the first season the NCAA committee ranks teams from No. 1 to No. 32 to create more of a balance in the tournament rather than the previous system of ranking teams as a No. 2 seed in a respective regional bracket.
The top 16 seeds will be grouped into pods of four. Seeds 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 and 13-16 will be grouped together. Similarly, seeds 17-32 will also be grouped into four-team pods, just as the top 16 seeds.
As the bracket comes together, the top four seeds will be paired with the pod that groups seeds 29-32.
Seeds 1-4 are paired with one team from seeds 29-32. Seeds 5-8 are paired with one team from seeds 25-28. Seeds 9-12 are paired with one team from seeds 21-24. Seeds 13-16 are paired with one team from seeds 17-20.
USA Today currently has the Cajuns as the No. 3 seed in the Starkville (Mississippi) Regional. They are projected to be in the regional with host No. 13 Mississippi State as the No. 1 seed, No. 20 Wake Forest as the No. 2 seed and Long Island as the No. 4 seed.
D1Baseball also has UL getting an at-large bid but this time as the No. 3 seed in the Auburn (Alabama) Regional. The Cajuns are projected to be in the regional with host No. 7 Auburn as the No. 1 seed, No. 20 Wake Forest as the No. 2 seed and North Florida as the No. 4 seed.
Baseball America has the Cajuns in as well but unlike the other projections, it has four SBC teams making the tournament rather than three. In this projection, the Cajuns would be the No. 3 seed in the Tallahassee (Florida) Regional alongside host No. 10 Florida State as the No. 1 seed, No. 23 Jacksonville State at the No. 2 seed and Rider as the No. 4 seed.
Shannon Belt covers high school sports and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns for The Daily Advertiser as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow her high school and Cajuns coverage on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ShannonBelt3. Got questions regarding HS/UL athletics? Send them to Shannon Belt at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: Will Louisiana baseball make the NCAA Tournament? See latest projections