Indy 500 expert predictions: Who does the IndyStar expect to win the 2026 Indy 500?

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Nathan Brown, IndyStar's former IndyCar Insider, has correctly predicted the last two Indy 500 winners. (Don't ask about the rest of Nathan's predictions last season.) But after years of poor prognostication, IndyStar has shown some skill.

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The winner of last year's predictions is videographer Clark Wade. No, he didn't pick Alex Palou to win but he did pick him to finish third. Clark had Pato O'Ward winning (he finished third) and Felix Rosenqvist second (he was also two spots off in fourth).

Here are this year's predictions:

Zion Brown, motor sports reporter

1. David Malukas: Team Penske knows how to win this race, and Malukas has learned from finishing 2nd last year with AJ Foyt Racing, so he'll get his first IndyCar win on the grandest stage.

2. Alex Palou: The pole winner will be at the front of the pack all day but winning this race two years in a row is asking a lot, even for the best IndyCar driver of his generation.

3. Conor Daly: Daly has one of the fastest cars on track and knows how to make up positions in this race, so he’ll get his first Indy 500 podium finish.

Nathan Brown, sports reporter

1. Pato O’Ward: O’Ward and his team have been too strong in this race for too many years running not to break through at some point, and though the car has been a handful at times, I think this finally is the year O’Ward prevails.

2. Alex Palou: Beyond trying to predict the unpredictable, it seems only a fluke could have Palou anywhere but the contending pack at the end, but I couldn’t quite get to thinking we’d have consecutive back-to-back winners, given how rare that’s been in this race’s history.

3. Conor Daly: All month, Daly has said he’s got the best car he’s ever had for the 500, and his qualifying results drove that point home. Predicting a first-time win for a team and driver is a bit too big of a step for me, given the experience up there likely to be contending, but I fully expect Daly to be in the mix at the final pit stop.

Gregg Doyel, columnist

1. Alex Palou: Palou is the GOAT of IndyCar, and GOATs don't lose. Not from the pole.

2 Conor Daly: Daly has had the crowd's love (to go with strong showing at his hometown race).

3. Felix Rosenqvist: Rosenqvist has had the fastest car for most of the buildup to race day.

Dana Hunsinger Benbow, enterprise writer

1. Takuma Sato: Sato has mastered this track twice, winning his first Indy 500 in 2017 with Andretti Autosport and his second in 2020 with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. This year, he will take his third victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and it will pay tribute to team owner Bobby Rahal, who 40 years ago won the Indy 500.

2. Alex Palou: Palou, the pole sitter, is the clear favorite. If he takes first, it will mean a back-to-back victory at IMS. He became the first Spaniard to win the race in 2025. But his dominance as IndyCar's leading man will turn into the runner up at this race.

3. David Malukas: Malukas earned his spot in the front row as an up-and-coming star of Team Penske, driving its No. 12 Chevrolet. In his fourth start at the Indy 500 and his first with Penske, he will prove he deserved his third-place position at the track.

Clark Wade, video

  1. David Malukas – Penske’s faith in his oval experience pays off.
  2. Santino Ferrucci – Extends his top-10 streak but misses the win.
  3. Felix Rosenqvist – Has had the speed all month, but falls short.

Scott Horner, trending reporter

While desperately not acknowledging that Alex Palou is inevitable ... 

  1. Scott McLaughlin: McLaughlin slipped a little in Fast 12 qualifying but he has otherwise been strong and can give Roger Penske a 21st win as a car owner.
  2. Santino Ferrucci: Ferrucci claims his car is much better in race setup than for qualifying — and he qualified fifth. Ferrucci usually improves from his starting position, so look for him to contend.
  3. David Malukas: Malukas finished second last year (third on track, and up one place after Marcus Ericsson was penalized) and he starts on the front row this year. He's another strong Team Penske candidate.

Mykal McEldowney, photographer

  1. Alex Palou: He checks every box at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with speed, precision, and consistency. Palou delivers again, going back-to-back as the winner of the 2026 Indianapolis 500.
  2. Josef Newgarden: He’s a legitimate threat to Palou. Newgarden’s strategy has consistently delivered at Indy, and there’s little reason to think that changes this year. Don’t be surprised if he’s right there at the finish, if not celebrating a third Indy 500 win.
  3. Takuma Sato: Sato is a sneaky, high-speed threat. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three—he’s won here in 2017 and 2020 and knows exactly how to get it done at Indy.

Aaron Ferguson, assistant sports editor

  1. Alex Palou: Time and again Palou and his team have shown why he's dominated IndyCar, and consecutive 500 wins would continue his path to becoming the best of all-time.
  1. Felix Rosenqvist: Not only did Rosenqvist's car look unbeatable until Palou and three others topped him in Fast 6 qualifying, he finished fourth starting from fifth last year.
  1. David Malukas: This is the spot the first-year Penske driver finished last year before a technical inspection bumped Marcus Ericsson out of second. Malukas has had an impressive season, and has a shot at winning. 

Josh Heron, sports reporter

  1. Alex Palou: There are no signs of this guy slowing down anytime soon.
  2. Scott McLaughlin: This is his redemption year after crashing at the 109th Indy 500. 
  3. Pato O'Ward: I believe Pato enters this race determined to get over the hump finally but will fall just short once again. 

Cameron Cocquyt, clerk

  1. Felix Rosenqvist: Rosenqvist continues momentum that he built up from the qualifying rounds to win his first ever Indy 500
  2. Josef Newgarden: Seasoned veteran is a two-time winner.
  3. Conor Daly: Noblesville-native and early practice session standout.

Jessica Garcete, sports intern

  1. Pato O’Ward: I’d be really upset if I didn’t pick him the year he finally wins it. He’s been too good at Indianapolis for too long, and at some point, the “bridesmaid” narrative has to end.
  2. David Malukas: He’s been the best Penske car all month. Quietly confident, consistently fast — and he’s starting on the front row.
  3. Conor Daly: The hometown hero! Starting eighth puts him right in striking distance, and he’s been steady enough all month to make it count.

Nat Newell, sports editor

  1. Alex Palou: How can you pick anyone else?
  2. Scott McLaughlin: Last year was horrific for McLaughlin and Team Penske, it can't be that bad again.
  3. Ed Carpenter: One last hurrah for the local driver.

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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indy 500 expert predictions: Who does the IndyStar expect to win the 2026 Indy 500?

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