Here’s how many murders are successfully investigated by police
· Citizen
The vast majority of murders are not only going unsolved, but cases are going cold in the earliest stages of investigations.
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The Ministry of Police recently disclosed the detection rates for murder and other crimes, as well as the budget allocations for detective resources.
Stats focused on the stations that dominate the quarterly crime statistics released by the South African Police Service (Saps).
In April 2025, Saps proposed a murder detection rate target of 11.33%, which would see detectives make significant progress in only 720 of the 6 351 murder cases opened in the last quarter of that year.
The high-profile station with the best murder detection rate in the most recently available financial year’s data struggled to break 20%, with 27 of 35 falling below 10%.
Police murder investigations
The information was shared by the ministry via a written parliamentary question posed by police portfolio committee chair Ian Cameron.
“A murder case does not begin and end with the crime scene. The detection rate measures the ability of Saps to solve crimes during investigation.” explained Cameron.
The detective branches at the 35 stations listed received a combined R304 million in transport, capital and associated asset funding in the 2024-25 financial year.
“Certain limitations exist for allocation of funding to cost centres per financial programme. However, the police station environment and especially frontline services, were prioritised for allocation of resources in recent years,” the ministry stated.
Gauteng received the highest funding allocation with R75 million, with 12 of its 15 stations listed having a detection rate below 10%.
Temba Saps in northern Tshwane had the highest detection rate with 18%, with Tembisa, Ivory Park, Eldorado Park, Mamelodi East and Moroka falling between 3.5% and 6.5%.
Hillbrow had a detection rate of 2.5%, while Jeppe and Johannesburg Central sat at 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively.
Correlation with funding
Other than Cape Town’s Nyanga station with 1.4%, no other stations recorded detection rates below 2% – all falling mainly in the sub-10% bracket.
KwaZulu Natal’s Inanda performed comparatively well with 11.3%, as did Pheonix and Empangeni with 10% each.
Limpopo’s high profile stations in Mankweng and Thohoyandou recorded 17.7% and 19.25%, although these figures were considerably down from previous years.
In the two years prior, Mankweng had detection rates of 32.5% and 22.7%, with Thohoyandou dropping from 35.1% to 22.7%, before the latest figures.
The Limpopo drop-off corresponds with a reduction in funding, with the two stations losing roughly 25% of its budget – a combined R10 million – since 2023.
The ministry stated that no analysis between funding and outcome had yet been conducted, as crimes were investigated “irrespective of the status” of resources available.
“Any deficits or shortage of funding are addressed through reprioritisation of frontline services allocations and especially the visible policing and detective services,” the ministry stated.
“Detectives cannot investigate murder properly without vehicles, phones, computers, forensic support, crime intelligence, functioning ICT systems, proper docket management and prosecution-led case building,” Cameron lamented.
‘Failed before the courtroom’
However, in most cases, conviction rates vastly improved in instances where police investigations led to prosecutions.
The ministry stated that 11 of the 35 listed stations secured 100% conviction rates when the cases made it to court.
These included Jeppe, Durban Central, Khayelitsha, Mfuleni, Cape Town Central, Temba, Honeydew and more.
This included a further 19 with conviction rates over 50%, nine of those recording a conviction rate of over 80%.
However, Hillbrow still lagged behind with a conviction rate of 16%. Hillbrow recorded 65 murder cases in the last quarters of 2023 and 2024 alone.
Cameron stressed that violent crime could not be addressed if detectives were not given adequate support.
“If murders are not properly investigated and detected, violent offenders remain in communities and families are left with silence.
“It is a justice system that failed before the courtroom was even reached,” Cameron concluded.