Will Tennessee make its first Final Four in program history? Our pick vs Michigan
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CHICAGO − Tennessee basketball was not consistently great against top teams in the regular season. It led to its lowest Men's NCAA Tournament seeding under coach Rick Barnes.
Once March Madness started, though, the No. 6 Vols (25-11) course-corrected into the most dangerous team in the tournament. Tennessee outclassed No. 2 Iowa State (29-8) for a 76-62 victory at the United Center on March 27 to make its third straight Elite Eight appearance.
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The Vols will need one more upset against No. 1 Michigan (34-3), likely the best team they've seen all season, on March 29 (2:15 p.m. ET, CBS). A victory sends UT to the school's first Final Four appearance.
The winner would play No. 1 Arizona (35-2) or No. 2 Purdue (30-8) in Indianapolis on April 4.
Here's our pick for Tennessee basketball's Elite Eight game against Michigan.
How does Tennessee basketball keep proving Knox News wrong?
Knox News selected both Virginia and Iowa State to boot Tennessee out of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols are still alive and reached the Elite Eight by eliminating the mistakes that tripped them up in the regular season.
Instead of crumbling when Virginia took a late lead, Tennessee kept the Cavaliers off the scoreboard and made its free throws. Instead of surrendering a double-digit lead while freshman star Nate Ament sat for almost seven minutes with foul trouble, Tennessee continued to punish Iowa State with its frontcourt, allowing the freshman star time to come in and close out the victory.
Even the turnovers aren't affecting the Vols as much as they should. They turned the ball over 17 times to the Cyclones, but Tennessee's overwhelming advantage on the glass and interior scoring canceled out the mistakes.
The timing of the turnovers is also crucial. Tennessee unlocked Iowa State's defense in the second half and only had two turnovers in the final 10 minutes of play.
Does Michigan have any holes?
Tennessee doesn't have a lot of Michigan losses to pull data from. The Wolverines had just three losses this season, and two of them were against teams in the Elite Eight in No. 1 Duke and No. 2 Purdue. The other was a three-point loss to No. 5 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament.
Michigan has the eighth-best offense in the country, but it's not the high-powered, jump shot-heavy attack that Alabama and Miami (Ohio) employed. The Wolverines are efficient around the basket, shooting 51.1% from the field on 18.8 assists per game, which both rank in the top-five nationally.
Big 10 Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg leads the Wolverines with 14.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals per game. The 6-foot-9 forward scored a combined 48 points in his last two games and shot above 65% from the floor both times.
Michigan, like Tennessee, is often careless with the ball. It averages 11.7 turnovers per game, which is only slightly better than the Vols' 11.9 per game average. Tennessee offsets its mistakes with elite offensive rebounding, while Michigan's crisp offense leads to good looks on most possessions. The Wolverines shot 50% from the field in their 90-77 Sweet 16 victory over No. 4 Alabama.
Our prediction for Tennessee basketball vs. Michigan
Tennessee entered March Madness with a 2-4 record in its final six games and had nothing in the second half against Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Now the Vols are in a toss-up game against a national title contender.
Tennessee's path to victory remains constant: win big on the offensive glass, limit mistakes down the stretch and turn to either point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie or Ament for big buckets in crunch time. The Vols have had considerable frontcourt advantages in their first three NCAA Tournament games, but Michigan narrows that gap. There's an even fewer margin for error against Michigan, one that Iowa State couldn't exploit without injured Joshua Jefferson.
The Wolverines are the most complete team Tennessee has faced thus far, and at risk of getting egg on our face (again), Michigan should advance to the Final Four.
Prediction: Michigan 77, Tennessee 72
Wynton Jackson covers high school sports for Knox News. Email: [email protected]
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee basketball vs Michigan prediction, pick in March Madness Elite 8