2026 March Madness odds and predictions: Breakdown of First Round in the Midwest - Kentucky on Upset Alert
· Yahoo Sports
Not one of the top four seeds in any region lost in the Opening Round of last season’s NCAA Tournament. Just one double digit seed (Arkansas as a 10-seed) advanced to the Sweet 16. Chalk prevailed by and large throughout the tournament. Will this year’s tournament unfold in a similar fashion?
We previously broke down the first round in the East. Lets take a look at the Opening Round in the Midwest.
Visit asg-reflektory.pl for more information.
*odds provided by DraftKings
2026 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region
The Midwest was rocked yesterday with the arrest of Aden Holloway on federal drug charges. Head Coach Nate Oats said Monday the Crimson Tide were preparing to play without the star guard. Holloway is the second leading scorer on the team (16.8ppg). That loss is sizable. If the team’s top three-point shooter is absent beyond even their opening round game, his absence will be more than noticeable. Does Michigan now reach the Elite Eight without breaking much of a sweat?
Lets dive into the region and look at every game of the First Round.
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 16 Howard/UMBC
Spread: TBD
Total: TBD
Purdue had the arsenal to upset the Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship. Neither the Bison nor the Retrievers have that kind of firepower. The injury to L.J. Cason will eventually catch up to the Wolverines but they roll in Round 1 and cover what will undoubtedly be a big number.
No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs (-162) vs. No. 9 St. Louis Billikens (+136)
Spread: Georgia -2.5
Total: 169.5
This game opened Georgia -1.5 with the Total set at 171.5.
St. Louis shoots the ball better than every other team in the country. They’ll need to be good because while they rebound the ball well, few teams do that better than Georgia. Pace is also something to consider. The Bulldogs will push tempo at every opportunity. For the last month or so, St. Louis has regularly started games slowly. They can ill afford to do that against a Georgia team that ranks Top 5 in scoring in all of college basketball. The play is Georgia on the Moneyline.
NBC Sports’ John Fanta (@John_Fanta) likes the Billikens:
Robbie Avila has had an amazing college career...and it continues for another game."
Watch More: Fanta’s Full Bracket
No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-325) vs. No. 12 Akron Zips (+260)
Spread: Texas Tech -7.5
Total: 156.5
This game opened Red Raiders -10.5 with the Total set at 155.5.
Texas Tech takes the court minus JT Toppin and with questions surrounding Christian Anderson (groin). Those factors make this game interesting. Akron is making its third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament and that experience matters. Both these teams defend at a high level. The lean is towards the Zips taking the 7.5 points.
John Fanta (@John_Fanta) sees an opportunity for the Red Raiders to make a little run:
"I hate that J.T. Toppin got hurt because I just love Texas Tech as a team...I think Texas Tech could make the Elite Eight but lets start here. They are going to win this game."
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-850) vs. Hofstra Pride (+575)
Spread: Alabama -11.5
Total: 159.5
This game opened Bama -10.5 with the Total set at 162.5.
The Aden Holloway situation clouds this breakdown. It does now look as if Alabama will be without their second-leading scorer and top three-point shooter. How much does his absence affect the flow and efficiency of the Tide? Alabama has an imposing front court, but March is about guard play. Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead should be able to find buckets against a Bama defense that more than occasionally lacks discipline. Take the points and Hofstra.
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 11 SMU/Miami (OH)
Spread: TBD
Total: TBD
SMU and Miami (OH) take the court in Dayton in the First Four. Until they play, it is difficult to fairly handicap this game. Tennessee has reached the Elite Eight the last two years, but this year’s edition is not as good led by a backcourt that is simply less dependable. That being said, the Volunteers will be favored probably by 5 or 6 and should advance to the Second Round. Check back once the matchup is set.
No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers (-2800) vs. No. 14 Wright State (+1300)
Spread: Cavaliers -18.5
Total: 144.5
This game opened Virginia -16.5 and the Total set at 146.5.
Not entirely sure why the Cavaliers are being as talked about this week as they are. They hung tough with a Duke team that is the top seed in the NCAA Tournament, but that was a Duke team minus two starters. That said, their defense overall and their ability to control the glass in particular is real. While Wright State’s metrics on offense are good, they have not seen a defense like the one Ryan Odom has created in Charlottesville. So long as UVA is making an occasional shot from beyond the arc, the Cavs should roll. Lean Virginia to cover the big number.
No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats-166) vs. No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos (+140)
Spread: Kentucky -3.5
Spread: 160.5
This game opened Kentucky -1.5 with the Total set at 161.5.
Santa Clara’s lineup is unselfish and littered with good shooters. Their issue is they have no presence in the paint. Kentucky is on the verge of adding this 22 million-dollar campaign to the list of recent disappointing seasons, but they do play well when allowed to play downhill. Expect a big game from Otega Oweh. The play in this game may well be the Game Total OVER as both teams want to run and gun.
John Fanta (@John_Fanta) is calling the upset:
"Santa Clara upsets Kentucky. There it is, folks. The Santa Clara Broncos...this team is really interesting."
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones (-8000) vs. No. 15 Tennessee Tigers (+2200)
Spread: Iowa State -24.5
Total: 149.5
This game opened Cyclones -23.5 with the Total set at 148.5.
A Final Four pick of many a bracket, the Cyclones are elite defensively. They turn over their opponent at a scary-good rate. TSU, however, is equally good at protecting the basketball. The Tigers’ issue is their defense. Its suspect on a good day. That said, if they protect the ball and can manufacture a few extra possessions, Nolan Smith’s squad may well keep this game within the number. The first five minutes tells the story. Lean Tennessee State taking the points.
We’ll have a breakdown of the West and South Regions in the coming hours leaving you plenty of time to fill out a winning bracket.
Enjoy the Madness.